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The geopolitical landscape of South Asia is once again under scrutiny, sparked by recent inflammatory remarks and historical tensions. The current controversy centers around a statement made by Bangladeshi leader Mohd Yunus, which suggested a possible expansion of China's economic influence into the seven northeastern states of India. This assertion ignited a firestorm of reactions from Indian politicians, most notably Pradyot Manikya, the founder of Tipra Motha and a member of Tripura's erstwhile royal family, who proposed a drastic countermeasure: the dismemberment of Bangladesh. Manikya's suggestion, made via a post on X, advocated for India to seize control of parts of Bangladesh, specifically the Chittagong Hill Tracts, citing historical claims and the desire of indigenous populations to be part of India. This proposal has brought into sharp focus the complex and often fraught relationship between India and Bangladesh, the strategic importance of the northeastern states, and the growing influence of China in the region. The northeastern states of India, often referred to as the ‘Seven Sisters,’ are geographically isolated from the rest of the country, connected only by the narrow Siliguri Corridor, also known as the ‘Chicken's Neck.’ This vulnerability has long been a concern for Indian policymakers, who have invested heavily in infrastructure and security measures to ensure the region's integration and stability. Yunus's remarks, suggesting that these states are effectively an extension of the Chinese economy and implying a potential takeover by Beijing, have exacerbated these anxieties and triggered strong condemnation from Indian officials. Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, for instance, labeled Yunus's comments as 'offensive' and 'strongly condemnable,' urging the central government to further develop rail and road links to the northeast to mitigate the region's dependence on the vulnerable Siliguri Corridor. The corridor, a mere 22 kilometers wide at its narrowest point, is a critical lifeline for the northeast, and any disruption to its connectivity would have severe consequences for the region's economy and security. Manikya's response, while extreme, reflects the deep-seated concerns and historical grievances that underpin the India-Bangladesh relationship. His proposal to 'break up Bangladesh' is rooted in the historical claims over the Chittagong Hill Tracts, a region inhabited by indigenous tribes who have long expressed a desire to be part of India. He argues that annexing this region would not only address the needs and aspirations of these indigenous communities but also provide India with direct access to the sea, a strategic advantage that the northeastern states currently lack. The Chittagong Hill Tracts have been a source of tension between Bangladesh and its indigenous population since the country's inception. The region has witnessed decades of conflict, with indigenous groups like the Shanti Bahini fighting for autonomy and recognition of their cultural identities. While a peace deal was signed in 1997, underlying grievances and tensions persist, making the region a potential flashpoint for future conflicts. Furthermore, Manikya highlights the perceived lack of friendship from Bangladesh, suggesting that the only true ally India had in that country was the late Sheikh Mujiur Rahman. This sentiment reflects a growing disillusionment among some segments of Indian society regarding the current state of India-Bangladesh relations. The extradition request for Sheikh Hasina, the daughter of Sheikh Mujiur Rahman, by the Yunus administration further complicates matters and adds another layer of complexity to the bilateral relationship. In addition to the political and historical dimensions, the growing economic and strategic influence of China in Bangladesh is a major factor driving India's concerns. Yunus's invitation to China to take advantage of Bangladesh's strategic location as the 'guardian of the ocean' has raised alarm bells in New Delhi. Bangladesh's three major seaports—Chattogram (formerly Chittagong), Mongla, and Payra—and the under-construction Matabari port are of significant strategic importance, and any Chinese presence in these ports would have implications for India's security. The Chattogram Port, in particular, has been considered by India as a transhipment hub for moving goods to Tripura's capital, Agartala. The alternative route, which utilizes the Chattogram port, offers a significant reduction in transportation costs compared to the traditional route via the Siliguri Corridor. However, the recent change of government in Bangladesh has introduced uncertainty and complicated the situation. Concerns are also mounting over Bangladesh's invitation to China to participate in the Teesta Water Management project. The Teesta River is a crucial source of water for both Bangladesh and India, and any Chinese involvement in its management would have serious implications for water security and regional stability. If China were to gain a presence south of districts like West Bengal's Jalpaiguri, it would further encroach on the vulnerable Siliguri Corridor, adding to India's security concerns. This, coupled with China's existing military presence to the north, would necessitate India to implement strategic countermeasures to safeguard the corridor and the northeastern region. The situation underscores the need for India to carefully assess its relationship with Bangladesh and to develop a comprehensive strategy to counter China's growing influence in the region. This strategy should include strengthening economic and security ties with friendly nations in the region, investing in infrastructure development in the northeast, and addressing the underlying grievances of the indigenous populations in the Chittagong Hill Tracts. It is imperative that India takes proactive measures to safeguard its strategic interests and ensure the stability and security of the northeastern states.
The current situation necessitates a multi-pronged approach. Firstly, India needs to reinforce its diplomatic engagement with Bangladesh, emphasizing mutual benefits and addressing concerns regarding Chinese influence. This requires a delicate balance, acknowledging Bangladesh's sovereign right to engage with other nations while clearly articulating India's security concerns and offering alternative avenues for economic cooperation. A robust diplomatic strategy should also involve promoting people-to-people exchanges, cultural programs, and educational initiatives to foster goodwill and understanding between the two countries. Secondly, India must accelerate infrastructure development in the northeast, focusing on improving connectivity, transportation, and communication networks. This includes upgrading existing roads and railways, constructing new airports and inland waterways, and enhancing digital infrastructure. Reducing the region's dependence on the Siliguri Corridor is crucial for enhancing its resilience and mitigating the risks associated with potential disruptions. Furthermore, India should explore alternative routes to connect the northeast with the rest of the country, such as through Myanmar or Bhutan, to diversify its transportation options. Thirdly, addressing the grievances of the indigenous populations in the Chittagong Hill Tracts is essential for long-term stability and security. This requires promoting inclusive development, ensuring the protection of their cultural identities, and addressing their concerns regarding land rights, governance, and political representation. India should work with Bangladesh to facilitate dialogue and reconciliation between the government and the indigenous communities, encouraging a peaceful and sustainable resolution to the ongoing conflicts. Providing economic assistance and technical expertise to support development projects in the Chittagong Hill Tracts can also help improve the living conditions of the indigenous populations and reduce their dependence on external support. Fourthly, India needs to strengthen its security posture in the northeast, enhancing its border management capabilities and improving intelligence gathering. This includes deploying additional troops along the border, establishing more border outposts, and utilizing advanced technology to monitor cross-border movements. Furthermore, India should work with neighboring countries to combat cross-border terrorism, smuggling, and illegal immigration, which pose a threat to the region's security. Enhancing intelligence sharing and coordination with Bangladesh and Myanmar can help improve the effectiveness of counter-terrorism efforts. Fifthly, India should actively engage with China to address its concerns regarding its growing influence in Bangladesh. This requires a candid and constructive dialogue, where India can articulate its security concerns and seek assurances that China's activities in Bangladesh are not aimed at undermining India's interests. While acknowledging China's economic interests in the region, India should emphasize the importance of maintaining peace and stability and respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries in the region. Furthermore, India should work with other like-minded nations to promote a rules-based international order and to ensure that China's actions in the region are consistent with international law and norms.
Finally, the strategic importance of the northeastern states for India’s overall security and economic growth cannot be overstated. The region is not only a gateway to Southeast Asia but also a vital link in India's Act East policy, which aims to strengthen economic and strategic ties with countries in the region. Investing in the development of the northeast is crucial for unlocking its economic potential, creating jobs, and improving the living conditions of its people. This requires promoting sustainable tourism, developing infrastructure for renewable energy, and attracting investments in manufacturing and services sectors. Furthermore, India should encourage the participation of local communities in development projects, ensuring that their voices are heard and their interests are protected. The northeast is also home to a rich diversity of cultures, languages, and traditions, which are an integral part of India's national heritage. Preserving and promoting this cultural diversity is essential for strengthening national unity and fostering a sense of belonging among the people of the region. India should support cultural institutions, promote traditional arts and crafts, and encourage inter-cultural exchanges to celebrate the region's unique identity. In conclusion, the current controversy surrounding Yunus's remarks and Manikya's response underscores the complex and multifaceted challenges facing India in its relationship with Bangladesh and in managing the security and development of the northeastern states. Addressing these challenges requires a comprehensive and integrated approach that combines diplomacy, infrastructure development, security measures, and inclusive governance. By strengthening its ties with Bangladesh, investing in the northeast, and engaging with China, India can safeguard its strategic interests and ensure the stability and prosperity of the region. The path forward requires careful consideration of historical context, current geopolitical realities, and the aspirations of the people of the region, all while maintaining a commitment to peaceful and sustainable solutions.
Source: "Break Up Bangladesh...": Tripura Ex-Royal On "Extension Of China" Remark