Pahalgam attack: Pakistan’s deliberate escalation; Surgical strike options open

Pahalgam attack: Pakistan’s deliberate escalation; Surgical strike options open
  • Pahalgam attack a deliberate escalation by Pakistan, well planned.
  • Need to expand metrics beyond tourism to measure J&K normalcy.
  • Military options remain; escalation planning critical for India’s response.

The recent terror attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, has sparked widespread concern and prompted a critical examination of the region's security landscape. Lieutenant General (Retd) DS Hooda, in an Idea Exchange session, provided valuable insights into the attack's implications, potential responses, and the broader context of India-Pakistan relations and the situation along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) with China. Hooda's analysis points to the Pahalgam attack as a deliberate escalation by Pakistan, meticulously planned to inflict maximum damage and undermine the narrative of normalcy in the region. The selection of the target, the absence of security forces, and the brutal targeting of tourists all suggest a calculated effort to destabilize the region and send a strong message. The attack's timing, preceding the Amarnath Yatra, further amplifies its disruptive potential. The targeted killings based on religion, separating Hindus and Muslims, demonstrate the malicious intent to stoke communal tensions and exacerbate the existing fault lines within the region. This act of terror is not an isolated incident but rather a continuation of Pakistan's long-standing policy of supporting and sponsoring terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir. The attackers, reportedly foreign terrorists, are better trained and equipped, indicating a renewed commitment to escalating violence in the region. This escalation also underscores the urgent need for a comprehensive review of India's security strategy and response mechanisms in Jammu and Kashmir. The attack highlights significant gaps in intelligence gathering and security deployment, particularly in vulnerable areas frequented by tourists. The absence of security force presence in Pahalgam, despite the high number of tourists and the impending Amarnath Yatra, raises serious questions about the effectiveness of the current security arrangements. While providing security to every tourist may not be feasible, a visible security presence and area domination are crucial in deterring attacks and ensuring a swift response. The Pahalgam attack has shattered the narrative of normalcy that the government has been promoting since the abrogation of Article 370. The influx of tourists was presented as a key indicator of improved security and stability, but the recent attack has exposed the fragility of this claim. The cancellation of bookings and the departure of tourists in large numbers demonstrate the immediate impact of the attack on the tourism sector and the overall sense of security in the region. However, it is important to avoid reinforcing the terrorist narrative by portraying the situation as completely dire. While the attack is a setback, it does not negate the progress that has been made in reducing overall violence levels in Jammu and Kashmir. The challenge lies in maintaining a balanced perspective, acknowledging the security challenges while also recognizing the positive developments that have taken place. The response to the Pahalgam attack requires a multi-faceted approach, encompassing military, diplomatic, and political dimensions. Hooda's insights into the decision-making process following the 2016 Uri terror attack provide valuable lessons for formulating an effective response strategy. The surgical strike in 2016 was a direct response to the Uri attack and the culmination of a series of events that demonstrated Pakistan's continued support for terrorism. The decision to conduct a cross-border operation was driven by the need to send a strong message to Pakistan and deter future attacks. The planning and execution of the surgical strike were conducted with utmost secrecy and precision, ensuring a swift and decisive outcome. The political leadership provided clear directives and entrusted the military with complete autonomy in planning and executing the operation. This level of trust and cooperation was essential for the success of the surgical strike. The Balakot aerial strike in 2019, following the Pulwama attack, demonstrated India's willingness to use air power to target terrorist infrastructure inside Pakistan. Both ground and air options remain on the table in response to the Pahalgam attack. The Line of Control is heavily guarded, but the terrain allows for identifying vulnerable points and targets. Standoff weapons can be used to strike targets from within Indian territory, and attack drones offer another option for precision strikes. The government has already taken some strong steps, such as reviewing the Indus Water Treaty, but the military option cannot be ruled out. However, any military action must be carefully calibrated to avoid escalation and minimize the risk of a wider conflict. The element of surprise, which was a key factor in the success of the 2016 surgical strike, may not be present this time, as Pakistan is likely to be better prepared for a retaliatory action. Therefore, any military plan must take into account Pakistan's enhanced preparedness and incorporate measures to mitigate the risk of escalation. The ceasefire agreement between India and Pakistan, which has been in place since 2021, is now under strain. The Pahalgam attack has led to increased tensions along the LoC, with reports of firing and troop movements on both sides. The ceasefire is fragile and could easily be jeopardized by further provocations or misinterpretations. If the government decides to take military action, the ceasefire agreement could become a casualty. Sustaining the ceasefire requires a political commitment from both India and Pakistan, but the current environment of mistrust and hostility makes this increasingly difficult. Beyond the immediate response to the Pahalgam attack, it is crucial to address the underlying factors that contribute to terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir. Hooda highlights the need to expand the metrics of normalcy beyond tourism and focus on indicators such as the level of support for terrorism, the quality of intelligence gathering, and the extent of radicalization. These are often difficult to measure, but they provide a more accurate assessment of the overall security situation. He mentions the importance of the Gujjar Bakarwal community for their assistance and help in terms of intelligence but that this bond has weakened over time. A renewed outreach to local communities, particularly the Gujjar Bakarwals, is essential for strengthening the intelligence network and gaining valuable insights into terrorist activities. The government must also address the grievances and concerns of the local population to prevent them from being swayed by extremist ideologies. This requires a comprehensive approach that includes economic development, job creation, and improved governance. The political challenges facing the government are significant, given the religious dimension of the Pahalgam attack. The attack has the potential to further polarize the region and exacerbate communal tensions. It is essential for the government to engage with local political parties, even those with perceived separatist tendencies, to build consensus and promote dialogue. The government must also ensure that its response to the attack is proportionate and does not alienate the local population. In addition to military and political measures, diplomatic efforts are also crucial. The overwhelming global support for India following the Pahalgam attack provides an opportunity to isolate Pakistan and exert international pressure on it to cease its support for terrorism. India must leverage this support to build a coalition of countries that are committed to combating terrorism and promoting regional stability. As the military and political leadership plan the next steps, it is essential to exercise caution and avoid overambitious military planning. Any military action must be carefully planned and executed to ensure success and minimize the risk of escalation. It is also crucial to look at all instruments of national power and see how they can be used effectively and responsibly. The situation along the LAC with China also requires careful attention. While the immediate tensions have de-escalated due to patrolling arrangements and buffer zones, the underlying issues remain unresolved. The confidence-building measures that kept peace between the two countries for many years have broken down, and it will take a long time to rebuild trust. The additional forces that have been deployed to the region have not yet been withdrawn, and suspicion persists on both sides. The path to normalcy along the LAC will be long and difficult, requiring sustained dialogue and a commitment to peaceful resolution.

Source: Lt General (retd) DS Hooda at Idea Exchange: ‘The horrific attack on tourists, selection of place, planning… this seems a deliberate escalation by Pakistan’

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