Markets to watch: Nikkei up, India-Pak tension, gold cues

Markets to watch: Nikkei up, India-Pak tension, gold cues
  • Indian markets poised for positive start, following global market cues.
  • Pahalgam attack heightens India-Pakistan tensions, impacts market sentiment.
  • Wall Street ends week positively; US dollar index shows slight decline.

The Indian stock market is anticipated to commence trading on a positive trajectory, fueled by the Gift Nifty's upward movement of 0.58% in early trading sessions. This positive signal suggests a potentially optimistic opening for prominent indices such as the Sensex and Nifty. As market participants prepare for a fresh trading day, the confluence of global economic indicators and pertinent domestic developments is poised to exert a significant influence on the overall market sentiment. The preceding trading session on Friday, April 25th, witnessed a decline in the Sensex by 588.90 points, equivalent to a 0.74% decrease, ultimately settling at 79,212.53. Concurrently, the Nifty experienced a dip of 207.35 points, representing a 0.86% contraction, to conclude at 24,039.35. Examining the broader Asian market landscape, a strong opening was observed across various indices on Monday. This bullish trend was largely attributed to anticipations surrounding new stimulus measures from China and encouraging signals pertaining to ongoing U.S. trade negotiations with regional economies. Japan's Nikkei 225 index demonstrated a robust performance, climbing by 0.82% in early trading hours, while the Topix index registered an even more substantial increase of 1.11%. South Korea's Kospi index also exhibited positive momentum, edging up by 0.32%, with the Kosdaq following suit with a gain of 0.29%. Similarly, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index advanced by 0.44% during the initial hours of trading. The recent terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir, has not only destabilized the region but has also escalated tensions between India and Pakistan, a development that warrants close monitoring by investors. India's swift attribution of blame to Pakistan and the subsequent downgrading of diplomatic ties, including the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, have contributed to an increasingly volatile geopolitical environment. This escalating conflict has the potential to generate ripple effects across Indian markets, particularly as concerns mount regarding potential disruptions in key industries such as water supply and overall regional stability. Prime Minister Modi's pledge to apprehend the perpetrators of the attack underscores the gravity of the situation. Global investors are advised to maintain a vigilant watch over these geopolitical tensions and their potential ramifications for market sentiment, particularly in sectors such as defense, energy, and commodities, which are inherently sensitive to geopolitical developments. Conversely, Wall Street concluded the week on a positive note, with the S&P 500 surging by 0.74% to reach 5,525.21 and the Nasdaq Composite soaring by 1.26% to 17,282.94. While the Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged behind in comparison, it still managed to eke out a modest gain, closing 20 points higher at 40,113.50. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which serves as a benchmark for measuring the dollar's value against a basket of six major foreign currencies, experienced a slight decline of 0.07% to settle at 99.65 on Monday morning. This index provides valuable insights into the relative strength or weakness of the US dollar in relation to other prominent currencies. The basket of currencies included in the DXY comprises the British Pound, Euro, Swedish Krona, Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc, and others. On the currency front, the rupee appreciated by 0.20% to close at 85.44 against the dollar on April 28th. In the realm of crude oil, prices exhibited a modest upward trend in early Monday trading, with both major benchmarks posting slight gains. WTI crude oil rose by 0.29% to reach $63.20 per barrel, while Brent crude oil advanced by 0.24% to $67.03 per barrel. Examining the investment patterns of foreign and domestic institutional investors, foreign investors continued their buying spree for the eighth consecutive day on Friday, April 25th, acquiring shares worth Rs 2,952 crore. Meanwhile, domestic investors resumed their buying activity, purchasing shares worth Rs 3,540 crore. Gold prices, on the other hand, exhibited signs of moderation. On Sunday, the price of 10 grams of 24 Karat gold hovered around Rs 99,000, reflecting a decline of nearly Rs 1,000 compared to the previous week. Over the past three years, gold has experienced a remarkable surge in value, with prices doubling between May 2022 and April 2024. The precious metal reached a record high, briefly surpassing the Rs 1 lakh mark on April 21st. According to current data from good returns today, gold rates in India stand at Rs 98,820 for 10 grams of 24-karat gold, Rs 90,001 for the same quantity of 22-karat gold, and Rs 73,650 for 10 grams of 18-karat gold. Looking ahead, the market will be closely monitoring key economic data releases from both the US and the Euro Zone this week. On Wednesday, investors will be keenly focused on the release of GDP figures, followed by unemployment rate data on Friday. Prior to these releases, the US will report its manufacturing PMI figures on Thursday, while the Euro Zone will unveil its core CPI data for April. On the trade front, President Donald Trump's administration is expected to maintain momentum by hosting foreign leaders and delegations for discussions. This follows the 90-day pause on tariffs announced earlier this month, providing countries with an opportunity to renegotiate and finalize new bilateral agreements. In terms of corporate action, shares of companies such as HCL Tech, Tanla Platforms, and 360 ONE WAM will trade ex-dividend starting Monday, April 28th. Several stocks will also turn ex-bonus during the week, making it an important period for shareholders to track key dates. The new week also marks the beginning of a new month, accompanied by a packed schedule of data releases and earnings announcements. Monthly auto sales numbers for May 1st will be closely scrutinized. On the macroeconomic front, investors will be paying close attention to the IIP data and HSBC's final Manufacturing PMI figures. Moreover, prominent companies such as BPCL, IOC, Kotak Mahindra Bank, SBI, Bajaj Finance, TVS Motor, and UltraTech Cement are all scheduled to announce their quarterly results. The convergence of these global and domestic factors will collectively shape the trajectory of the Indian stock market in the days and weeks ahead. Careful consideration of these elements is crucial for investors seeking to navigate the complexities of the market and make informed investment decisions.

Source: How will markets open today? Nikkei up 1%, US markets, India-Pak tension, Gold and 8 more cues to watch

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