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The recent decision by India to withdraw transhipment facilities for Bangladeshi goods through Indian ports and airports is not merely a matter of logistical congestion, as officially stated. While congestion certainly plays a role in hindering the smooth flow of goods, the withdrawal serves as a potent diplomatic signal to Bangladesh, particularly to the interim government led by Muhammad Yunus. This action reflects India's growing impatience with what it perceives as increasingly hostile acts emanating from Dhaka. New Delhi has exercised considerable restraint in its response to provocations following the ousting of Sheikh Hasina, a leader who had fostered closer ties with India. However, the invitation extended by Yunus to China to refurbish a Second World War-era airbase at Lalmonirhat in Rangpur division appears to have crossed a critical threshold, prompting India to take decisive action. The strategic implications of this airbase, situated a mere 10 kilometers from the Indian border and approximately 160 kilometers from the Siliguri Corridor – the narrow strip of land connecting India's northeastern states to the rest of the country – are significant. Chinese involvement in this location raises concerns about potential security risks and the erosion of India's regional influence.
The Siliguri Corridor, often referred to as the 'Chicken's Neck,' is a strategically vital but vulnerable piece of territory for India. Its proximity to Bangladesh, Nepal, and Bhutan makes it susceptible to external pressures. The presence of a Chinese-renovated airbase in Lalmonirhat significantly enhances China's ability to project power into this region, potentially disrupting India's access to its northeastern states in times of crisis. This scenario underscores the strategic imperative for India to maintain a strong and stable relationship with Bangladesh, one that respects India's security concerns. Yunus's decision to involve China in the Lalmonirhat airbase project can be interpreted as a deliberate attempt to undermine India's position and cultivate closer ties with Beijing, a move that has understandably triggered a strong reaction from New Delhi. The withdrawal of transhipment facilities, while potentially detrimental to Bangladesh's trade, serves as a clear warning to Dhaka about the consequences of pursuing policies that are perceived as detrimental to India's national interests.
The timing of India's decision, following Prime Minister Narendra Modi's meeting with Yunus on the sidelines of the BIMSTEC summit in Bangkok, further emphasizes the diplomatic significance of the move. The reported lack of warmth during their interaction suggests that Modi conveyed India's concerns directly to Yunus, likely emphasizing the need for Bangladesh to reconsider its approach to regional security and cooperation. In contrast to the strained interaction with the Bangladeshi leadership, Modi's engagement with Thailand and his subsequent visit to Sri Lanka showcased India's commitment to its Act East and Neighbourhood First policies. These initiatives aim to strengthen India's relationships with its neighboring countries and deepen its engagement with Southeast Asia. By prioritizing these relationships, India seeks to counter China's growing influence in the region and promote a more balanced and cooperative regional order. The mixed nature of India's immediate and extended neighborhood highlights the complexities of its foreign policy challenges.
The Act East policy, initiated by the Indian government, aims to foster greater economic, strategic, and cultural ties with countries in Southeast Asia. This policy recognizes the importance of Southeast Asia as a crucial bridge between India and the wider Asia-Pacific region. Through initiatives such as trade agreements, infrastructure development projects, and cultural exchange programs, India seeks to enhance its connectivity with Southeast Asia and promote regional integration. Simultaneously, the Neighbourhood First policy prioritizes the strengthening of relationships with India's immediate neighbors, including Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, and the Maldives. This policy recognizes that stability and prosperity in India's neighborhood are essential for its own security and development. India actively engages with these countries through bilateral dialogues, economic assistance, and security cooperation to address shared challenges and promote mutual interests.
The decision to reenergize BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation), with India and Thailand taking the lead, further demonstrates India's commitment to regional cooperation. BIMSTEC is a regional organization that brings together countries from South Asia and Southeast Asia, including India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Myanmar, Nepal, and Bhutan. It aims to promote economic cooperation, connectivity, and security among its member states. By revitalizing BIMSTEC, India seeks to create a more effective platform for regional collaboration and counter the growing influence of China's Belt and Road Initiative. The elevation of the India-Thailand relationship to a strategic partnership underscores the growing importance of this bilateral relationship for India's Act East policy. Thailand is a key partner for India in Southeast Asia, and the strategic partnership reflects a shared commitment to promoting regional stability, economic growth, and security cooperation. Through this partnership, India and Thailand aim to deepen their collaboration in areas such as trade, investment, defense, and counter-terrorism.
The situation with Bangladesh underscores the delicate balance India must maintain in its foreign policy. While India seeks to foster closer ties with its neighbors and promote regional cooperation, it must also safeguard its national interests and address potential security threats. The withdrawal of transhipment facilities, while a strong signal of India's displeasure, also carries the risk of further alienating Bangladesh and pushing it closer to China. Therefore, India needs to adopt a nuanced and proactive approach to manage its relationship with Bangladesh, one that combines firmness with diplomacy and emphasizes the mutual benefits of cooperation. It is crucial for India to engage in open and frank dialogue with Bangladesh to address its concerns and seek a mutually acceptable resolution to the current impasse. India should also explore ways to enhance economic cooperation and connectivity with Bangladesh, while ensuring that these initiatives do not compromise its security interests.
Furthermore, India should actively work to counter China's growing influence in the region through a combination of strategic partnerships, economic investments, and security cooperation. By strengthening its ties with countries such as Thailand, Sri Lanka, and Nepal, India can create a more balanced regional order and prevent any single power from dominating the region. India should also continue to invest in infrastructure development in its northeastern states to improve connectivity and reduce its dependence on the Siliguri Corridor. This will enhance India's resilience and reduce its vulnerability to external pressures. In conclusion, the recent events surrounding India-Bangladesh relations highlight the complexities of India's foreign policy challenges in a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape. India must adopt a strategic and proactive approach to manage its relationships with its neighbors, safeguard its national interests, and promote a stable and prosperous regional order. This requires a combination of diplomacy, economic engagement, and security cooperation, as well as a willingness to address potential security threats proactively.