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The question on many investors' minds is whether the current gold rally can be sustained, pushing prices to the coveted Rs 1 lakh mark by Akshaya Tritiya. With 24 karat gold already commanding a price of Rs 93,350 per 10 grams, and physical gold surpassing Rs 96,000 after accounting for GST, the possibility is certainly being discussed. On the MCX, gold contracts reached a lifetime high of Rs 93,940, fueled by ongoing tensions between the US and China. The India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA) reports that 22 karat gold costs Rs 91,110 per 10 grams, 20 karat gold is priced at Rs 83,080, and 18 karat and 14 karat gold stand at Rs 75,620 and Rs 60,210, respectively. Gold prices have already risen by nearly 20%, or Rs 16,000 per 10 grams, in 2025, demonstrating a significant upward trend. Several factors are contributing to this rally, including geopolitical instability, inflation concerns, and the weakening dollar. Geopolitical uncertainty often drives investors towards safe-haven assets like gold, increasing demand and pushing prices higher. Inflation, which erodes the purchasing power of fiat currencies, also tends to support gold prices, as it is seen as a store of value. A weaker dollar can make gold more attractive to international buyers, further boosting demand. The interplay of these factors creates a conducive environment for gold to potentially reach new highs, but whether it will happen by Akshaya Tritiya remains to be seen.
Despite the bullish momentum, analysts remain cautiously optimistic. Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency at LKP Securities, notes that gold is eyeing the resistance zone of Rs 94,500–Rs 95,000, with Rs 92,000 serving as an important support level. However, he refrains from making a definitive prediction about gold reaching Rs 1 lakh by Akshaya Tritiya. Trivedi also points out that gold appears overbought in both international and domestic markets. On COMEX, the $3,240–$3,260 range is emerging as a significant resistance zone, while in India, prices near Rs 94,000–Rs 92,000 per 10 grams are testing the upper band of sustainability. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on daily charts has risen above 75 and is displaying volatility, indicating a classic signal of mixed momentum. This suggests that while the upward trend is strong, the market may be due for a correction. The RSI, a momentum indicator used in technical analysis, measures the magnitude of recent price changes to evaluate overbought or oversold conditions in the price of a stock or other asset. An RSI above 70 is generally considered to indicate that an asset is overbought and may be due for a pullback. Therefore, the high RSI for gold suggests that investors should be cautious and avoid chasing the rally blindly.
Anuj Gupta, Head – Commodity & Currency at HDFC Securities, also remains positive on gold’s prospects but emphasizes that it is too early to estimate whether it will reach Rs 1 lakh. The price of gold is influenced by various factors, and attempting to pinpoint a specific target within a short timeframe can be speculative. The strength of the dollar, interest rate decisions by central banks, and developments in the global economy all play a crucial role in determining gold prices. Furthermore, unexpected events, such as geopolitical shocks or economic crises, can have a significant impact on market sentiment and drive prices up or down. Therefore, a prudent approach is to monitor these factors closely and adjust investment strategies accordingly. While the long-term outlook for gold remains positive, given its historical role as a safe-haven asset and a hedge against inflation, short-term price movements can be volatile and unpredictable. Investors should also consider their risk tolerance and investment objectives before making any decisions. Diversifying their portfolio with other asset classes can help mitigate the risk associated with investing solely in gold. Moreover, it is essential to stay informed about market trends and expert opinions to make well-informed investment choices. Investing in gold should be part of a comprehensive financial plan, taking into account individual circumstances and goals.
The potential for gold to reach Rs 1 lakh by Akshaya Tritiya hinges on a confluence of factors, including continued geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and a weakening dollar. If these conditions persist, the upward momentum could carry gold prices to new heights. However, technical indicators suggest that the market may be overbought, and a correction is possible. Therefore, investors should exercise caution and avoid chasing the rally blindly. A prudent approach is to monitor market trends, assess risk tolerance, and diversify investment portfolios. The views expressed by experts, such as Jateen Trivedi and Anuj Gupta, provide valuable insights into the potential trajectory of gold prices, but ultimately, investment decisions should be based on individual circumstances and goals. The inherent volatility of the gold market requires a well-informed and disciplined approach to investing. Furthermore, investors should consider the potential impact of government policies and regulations on gold prices. Changes in import duties or taxes on gold can significantly affect its demand and supply, leading to price fluctuations. Staying abreast of these developments can help investors make more informed decisions. The global economic landscape is constantly evolving, and its impact on gold prices cannot be ignored. Economic growth, interest rates, and currency movements all play a role in shaping the demand for gold. Understanding these dynamics is essential for navigating the complexities of the gold market.
Akshaya Tritiya, an auspicious day for Hindus and Jains, is traditionally associated with the purchase of gold. The increased demand for gold during this period can provide a temporary boost to prices. However, the long-term sustainability of the rally will depend on the underlying fundamentals of the market. Investors should not solely rely on the Akshaya Tritiya effect to make investment decisions. Instead, they should focus on a comprehensive analysis of market trends and economic indicators. The gold market is also influenced by speculative trading activity. Large institutional investors and hedge funds can significantly impact prices through their trading strategies. Monitoring their activities can provide valuable insights into the potential direction of the market. However, it is important to note that speculative trading can also lead to increased volatility and price swings. Therefore, investors should exercise caution and avoid being swayed by short-term market fluctuations. The long-term value of gold as a store of value remains intact, but short-term price movements can be unpredictable. Investing in gold requires patience, discipline, and a thorough understanding of market dynamics. Consulting with a financial advisor can help investors make informed decisions and develop a suitable investment strategy. The advisor can assess the investor's risk tolerance, investment objectives, and financial situation to create a personalized plan that includes gold as part of a diversified portfolio.
The analysis provided by experts like Jateen Trivedi and Anuj Gupta highlights the complexities of predicting gold prices. While the current rally is fueled by various factors, including geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns, technical indicators suggest that the market may be overbought. Therefore, investors should exercise caution and avoid chasing the rally blindly. A prudent approach is to monitor market trends, assess risk tolerance, and diversify investment portfolios. The potential for gold to reach Rs 1 lakh by Akshaya Tritiya is uncertain, but the long-term outlook for gold remains positive. Its role as a safe-haven asset and a hedge against inflation makes it an attractive investment option. However, investors should be aware of the inherent volatility of the gold market and the potential impact of government policies and regulations. Staying informed about market developments and seeking professional advice can help investors make well-informed decisions. Ultimately, investing in gold should be part of a comprehensive financial plan that takes into account individual circumstances and goals. Diversification is key to mitigating risk and achieving long-term financial success. The gold market is dynamic and constantly evolving, requiring investors to remain vigilant and adaptable. A proactive approach to investing, coupled with a thorough understanding of market dynamics, can help investors navigate the complexities of the gold market and achieve their financial objectives. The information provided in this analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice.
Source: Can gold sustain its rally and touch Rs 1 lakh by Akshaya Tritiya? Here's what experts say