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The article highlights a significant shift in Azerbaijan's foreign policy, marked by a growing interest in strengthening its ties with India while seemingly distancing itself from its traditional ally, Pakistan. This realignment is evidenced by several key developments, including the launch of direct flights between Baku and major Indian cities, a substantial increase in bilateral trade, and a notable diplomatic gesture wherein Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev refrained from commenting on the sensitive Kashmir issue during a joint press conference with the Pakistani Prime Minister. This represents a departure from past practices where Aliyev explicitly voiced support for Pakistan's position on Kashmir, suggesting a calculated effort to balance its relationships with both countries. The economic dimension of this shift is particularly striking, with bilateral trade between India and Azerbaijan experiencing exponential growth in recent years. From a modest $18 million in 2000, trade surged to over $739 million by 2021, and then dramatically increased to $1.8 billion in 2022, representing a staggering 156.4% year-on-year growth. This burgeoning trade relationship is further bolstered by India's increasing exports to Azerbaijan, which include essential commodities such as rice, smartphones, aluminum oxides, drugs, and granite. India has also made significant investments in Azerbaijan's energy sector, with ONGC Videsh acquiring a stake in the Azeri, Chirag, and deep-water portions of the Gunashli (ACG) fields in the Caspian Sea, investing over $1.2 billion in the project since 2013. The launch of direct flights between Baku and Ahmedabad, as well as the increase in flights between Baku and Mumbai, underscores Azerbaijan's commitment to fostering closer people-to-people connections and facilitating increased tourism and business travel between the two countries. The surge in Indian visitors to Azerbaijan in recent years further reinforces this trend, indicating a growing interest in Azerbaijan as a tourist destination among Indian travelers. The timing of these developments, coupled with Azerbaijan's silence on the Kashmir issue, suggests a deliberate strategy on Baku's part to recalibrate its foreign policy priorities and cultivate a stronger partnership with India. This shift is likely driven by a combination of factors, including economic considerations, strategic interests, and a desire to diversify its diplomatic relationships. India's growing economic power and its strategic importance in the region make it an attractive partner for Azerbaijan, while the potential benefits of closer ties with India may outweigh the risks of alienating Pakistan. The complexity of this geopolitical dance lies in the historically close ties between Azerbaijan and Pakistan, which have been characterized by a strong security partnership and mutual support on various issues. Azerbaijan's past expressions of support for Pakistan's position on Kashmir have been a cornerstone of this relationship, making Aliyev's recent silence on the issue all the more significant. It remains to be seen how Pakistan will react to Azerbaijan's growing closeness with India, and whether this shift will strain the traditional bonds between Baku and Islamabad. The article raises several important questions about the future of Azerbaijan's foreign policy and its implications for regional dynamics. Will Azerbaijan continue to prioritize its relationship with India at the expense of its ties with Pakistan? What are the underlying motivations driving Azerbaijan's strategic shift? And how will this shift impact the broader geopolitical landscape in the region? Further analysis and observation will be necessary to fully understand the long-term consequences of Azerbaijan's evolving relationship with India and Pakistan. The situation underscores the fluidity of international relations and the constant need for countries to adapt their foreign policies to changing geopolitical realities.
The Azerbaijan-Pakistan relationship has deep roots, solidified by mutual support in conflicts and shared cultural affinities. Pakistan has consistently backed Azerbaijan's stance on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, a region internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan but largely populated and controlled by ethnic Armenians until Azerbaijan's military victory in 2020. This unwavering support has been crucial for Azerbaijan, especially in international forums. Similarly, Azerbaijan has traditionally voiced its support for Pakistan on the Kashmir issue, aligning with Islamabad's position. This mutual backing has fostered a strong sense of camaraderie and cooperation between the two nations, extending to military and security domains. Joint military exercises and defense collaborations have been commonplace, reinforcing the security partnership. However, the recent shift towards India introduces a new dynamic, potentially challenging the foundations of this long-standing alliance. The economic incentives driving Azerbaijan's interest in India are undeniable. India's rapidly growing economy, vast consumer market, and increasing global influence make it an attractive partner for any nation seeking economic diversification and growth. The substantial increase in bilateral trade between India and Azerbaijan demonstrates the untapped potential for further economic cooperation. Furthermore, India's investments in Azerbaijan's energy sector provide a significant boost to the Azerbaijani economy. In contrast, Pakistan's economic challenges and its relatively smaller market size make it a less compelling economic partner compared to India. Therefore, Azerbaijan's pursuit of closer economic ties with India is a rational response to the changing economic realities and the opportunities presented by India's rise. The diplomatic implications of Azerbaijan's shift are equally significant. By refraining from commenting on the Kashmir issue during a joint press conference with the Pakistani Prime Minister, President Aliyev signaled a departure from his previous practice of publicly supporting Pakistan's position. This silence can be interpreted as a deliberate attempt to avoid alienating India and to create a more conducive environment for fostering closer ties. It also reflects a growing recognition within Azerbaijan that its relationship with India is becoming increasingly important and that it cannot afford to jeopardize this relationship by taking a stance on Kashmir that is unfavorable to India. The strategic considerations underlying Azerbaijan's shift are also noteworthy. India's strategic importance in the region and its growing influence on the global stage make it a valuable partner for Azerbaijan. By forging closer ties with India, Azerbaijan can enhance its own strategic position and diversify its alliances. Furthermore, India's commitment to multilateralism and its focus on economic development align with Azerbaijan's own foreign policy priorities. The shift towards India also allows Azerbaijan to reduce its dependence on traditional allies and to pursue a more independent foreign policy. This independence is crucial for Azerbaijan, as it seeks to navigate the complex geopolitical landscape of the region and to protect its own national interests.
Despite the clear benefits of closer ties with India, Azerbaijan's shift carries potential risks. Pakistan may perceive Azerbaijan's growing closeness with India as a betrayal of their long-standing alliance and may retaliate by reducing its support for Azerbaijan on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue. This could weaken Azerbaijan's position in international forums and could embolden Armenia to take a more aggressive stance. Furthermore, Azerbaijan's shift could create tensions within its own government and society, as there may be elements that are resistant to distancing from Pakistan. Managing these risks will require careful diplomacy and a nuanced understanding of the sensitivities involved. Azerbaijan will need to reassure Pakistan that its growing relationship with India is not intended to undermine their alliance and that it remains committed to supporting Pakistan on issues of mutual concern. It will also need to engage in open dialogue with all stakeholders within its own government and society to ensure that there is a broad consensus on its foreign policy direction. The long-term implications of Azerbaijan's shift are uncertain. It remains to be seen whether Azerbaijan can successfully balance its relationships with India and Pakistan or whether it will be forced to choose between the two. The outcome will depend on a number of factors, including the evolution of the geopolitical landscape in the region, the dynamics of the India-Pakistan relationship, and the internal political dynamics within Azerbaijan. However, one thing is clear: Azerbaijan's strategic shift represents a significant development in the region and has the potential to reshape the geopolitical landscape. It underscores the fluidity of international relations and the constant need for countries to adapt their foreign policies to changing realities. The implications of this shift will be felt far beyond the borders of Azerbaijan, India, and Pakistan, and will likely have a profound impact on the broader region. The article provides a valuable insight into the complex dynamics of international relations and the challenges that countries face in navigating a rapidly changing world. It highlights the importance of economic considerations, strategic interests, and diplomatic gestures in shaping foreign policy decisions. It also underscores the need for careful diplomacy and a nuanced understanding of the sensitivities involved in managing complex relationships. As the world becomes increasingly interconnected, it is more important than ever for countries to be able to adapt their foreign policies to changing realities and to build strong relationships with a diverse range of partners.
Source: Why Azerbaijan, a Pakistan ally, is now courting India