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The Indian stock market exhibited persistent pressure, as the Nifty 50 index struggled to maintain its position above the 5 and 10-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), ultimately closing down by approximately a third of a percent during a session characterized by range-bound trading on March 13. A notable development was the decline in the India Volatility Index (VIX) to its lowest closing level of the current year, suggesting a potential for a rebound in the Nifty 50 during the upcoming trading session. However, experts emphasize that the sustainability of any such rebound will be a crucial factor to monitor. A significant rally is deemed unlikely until the index achieves a decisive and sustainable close above the 22,650-22,700 zone on the higher side. This particular zone is of significance as it coincides with the 20-week EMA and the bearish gap observed on February 24. Conversely, on the lower side, the 22,300-22,250 range is anticipated to act as an immediate support level for the Nifty 50. The article then provides a series of data points, specifically fifteen, that are intended to assist traders in identifying potentially profitable trading opportunities. These data points encompass key levels for both the Nifty 50 and the Bank Nifty, derived from pivot point analysis. For the Nifty 50, resistance levels are identified at 22,513, 22,556, and 22,625, while support levels are placed at 22,375, 22,332, and 22,263. The Nifty 50 also formed a bearish candlestick pattern on the daily charts, accompanied by average trading volumes. The index remained below all key moving averages and within the lower band of the Bollinger Bands, which is interpreted as a negative signal. The formation of lower highs and lower lows cannot be disregarded until the index achieves a decisive close above the 22,700 mark. For the Bank Nifty, resistance levels based on pivot points are identified at 48,272, 48,354, and 48,486, with support levels at 48,007, 47,926, and 47,793. Fibonacci retracement levels provide additional resistance at 49,290 and 50,282, and support at 47,872 and 46,078. The Bank Nifty closed relatively flat and exhibited a bearish candlestick pattern with a minor upper shadow on the daily timeframe. The index traded below all key moving averages, including the 5, 10, 20, 50, 100, and 200-day EMAs, as well as below the midline of the Bollinger Bands, which is considered a negative sign. A strong and sustainable close above 48,800 could potentially negate the lower highs-lower lows formation.
An analysis of Nifty call option data reveals that the 23,000 strike price holds the maximum call open interest (OI) with 51.83 lakh contracts. This level is expected to act as a significant resistance level for the Nifty in the short term. Following the 23,000 strike, the 22,500 and 22,700 strikes hold 50.4 lakh and 49.39 lakh contracts, respectively. Maximum call writing activity was observed at the 22,700 strike, with an addition of 36.69 lakh contracts. The 23,000 and 22,400 strikes also witnessed significant call writing, adding 25.01 lakh and 21.9 lakh contracts, respectively. Call unwinding activity was minimal across the 21,500-23,350 strike price range. In contrast, the put option data for the Nifty indicates that the 22,000 strike price holds the maximum put open interest (OI) with 93 lakh contracts, suggesting a key support level for the index. The 21,500 and 22,400 strikes follow with 58.06 lakh and 32.72 lakh contracts, respectively. Maximum put writing was concentrated at the 22,000 strike, with an addition of 72.26 lakh contracts. The 21,500 and 22,400 strikes also saw substantial put writing, adding 29.84 lakh and 14.46 lakh contracts, respectively. Similar to the call options, put unwinding activity was limited within the 21,500-23,350 strike band. Turning to the Bank Nifty, the call option data indicates that the 49,000 strike price holds the maximum call open interest (OI) with 19.32 lakh contracts, potentially acting as a key resistance level in the short term. The 50,000 and 48,500 strikes follow with 15.38 lakh and 12.43 lakh contracts, respectively. Maximum call writing was observed at the 50,100 strike, with an addition of 1.91 lakh contracts. The 48,000 and 48,200 strikes also saw significant call writing, adding 1.87 lakh and 1.32 lakh contracts, respectively. The 47,700 strike witnessed the maximum call unwinding, shedding 4,260 contracts, followed by the 47,900 and 47,600 strikes, which shed 2,400 and 1,920 contracts, respectively.
On the put side for Bank Nifty, the 48,000 strike holds the maximum Put open interest (with 15.34 lakh contracts), which can act as a key support level for the index. This was followed by the 47,000 strike (11.68 lakh contracts) and the 47,500 strike (8.86 lakh contracts). The maximum Put writing was observed at the 48,000 strike (which added 87,660 contracts), followed by the 48,200 strike (69,930 contracts) and the 48,400 strike (60,510 contracts). The maximum Put unwinding was seen at the 47,400 strike, which shed 72,330 contracts, followed by the 47,800 and 48,500 strikes which shed 24,780 and 22,770 contracts, respectively. The article then presents data on funds flow, but does not provide any specific details. The Nifty Put-Call ratio (PCR), a market sentiment indicator, increased to 1.02 on March 13, from 0.96 in the previous session. An increasing PCR, particularly when above 0.7 or surpassing 1, typically suggests a strengthening bullish sentiment in the market as traders are selling more Put options than Call options. Conversely, a PCR below 0.7 or trending towards 0.5 indicates that Call selling is outpacing Put selling, signaling a bearish market mood. The India VIX, often referred to as the fear factor, continued its downward trajectory, remaining below the 14 mark at 13.28, which represents a 3.01 percent decrease on Thursday. This trend is generally seen as favorable for bulls. Notably, the VIX closed at its lowest level since December 27, 2024. Further analysis identifies 24 stocks exhibiting a long build-up, characterized by an increase in both open interest (OI) and price. Conversely, 69 stocks experienced long unwinding, indicated by a decline in OI along with a price decrease. 105 stocks demonstrated a short build-up, marked by an increase in OI and a fall in price, while 22 stocks saw short-covering, meaning a decrease in OI coupled with a price increase. The article also highlights stocks with high delivery trades, where a substantial share of trades result in actual delivery, reflecting investor interest rather than purely speculative trading. Finally, the article lists securities currently banned under the F&O segment. These restrictions apply to companies where derivative contracts exceed 95 percent of the market-wide position limit. The list includes stocks added to the F&O ban, stocks retained in the F&O ban (BSE, IndusInd Bank, Hindustan Copper, Manappuram Finance, SAIL), and stocks removed from the F&O ban (Nil). The article includes a disclaimer advising users to consult certified experts before making investment decisions and a disclosure stating that Moneycontrol is part of the Network18 group, which is controlled by Independent Media Trust, of which Reliance Industries is the sole beneficiary.
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