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The meeting between Edappadi K Palaniswami (EPS), the general secretary of the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) and former Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu, and Union Home Minister Amit Shah has sparked significant speculation regarding a potential revival of the AIADMK-BJP alliance in the run-up to the Tamil Nadu Assembly elections. This meeting assumes particular importance considering the AIADMK's previous alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) within the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) before their separation in 2023. The context of this potential reunion lies in the evolving political landscape of Tamil Nadu, where both parties are strategically positioning themselves for the upcoming assembly polls. The AIADMK, as the main opposition party, is seeking to regain its political footing, while the BJP aims to strengthen its presence in the southern state after struggling to secure seats in the last Lok Sabha elections. The dynamics of this alliance are influenced by past electoral performances, internal party challenges, and the broader political strategies of both entities. The AIADMK's recent electoral setbacks and internal factionalism, coupled with the BJP's desire to expand its influence in Tamil Nadu, create a complex interplay of motivations driving the potential alliance. Furthermore, the dominance of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)-led INDIA bloc in Tamil Nadu adds another layer of complexity, highlighting the strategic imperative for the AIADMK and BJP to forge a strong alliance to challenge the ruling coalition. The historical performance of the BJP-AIADMK alliance is marked by periods of success and failure, reflecting the shifting political dynamics and the specific circumstances surrounding each election. A closer examination of these past alliances provides valuable insights into the potential challenges and opportunities that may arise in the event of a reunion. The complexities of this potential alliance extend beyond mere electoral calculations. Issues such as the alleged imposition of Hindi in Tamil Nadu, which EPS discussed with Shah, highlight the cultural and linguistic sensitivities that need to be addressed in any potential partnership. Navigating these sensitive issues will be crucial for maintaining a cohesive alliance and ensuring that the interests of both parties are effectively represented. The future success of the AIADMK-BJP alliance hinges on their ability to overcome past differences, address current challenges, and develop a shared vision for the future of Tamil Nadu.
The history of the AIADMK-BJP alliance is characterized by periods of both collaboration and conflict, reflecting the dynamic nature of Indian politics. In the 1998 Lok Sabha elections, the AIADMK, under the leadership of J. Jayalalithaa, forged an alliance with the BJP for the first time. This alliance proved to be remarkably successful, securing a total of 30 seats, with the AIADMK winning 18 seats and the BJP winning 3 seats. Other parties, including the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK), Subramanian Swamy's Janata Party (JP), and Tamizhaga Rajiv Congress (TRC), also contributed to the alliance's success. However, this initial partnership was short-lived. Tensions arose due to various factors, including corruption allegations against Jayalalithaa and disagreements over policy matters. In June 1998, a special court in Chennai ordered the attachment of movable properties valued at Rs 11.59 crore belonging to Jayalalithaa and her associates. This development put immense pressure on the BJP-led central government, as AIADMK MPs sought to leverage their position within the ruling coalition to protect Jayalalithaa from legal repercussions. AIADMK members of the ruling dispensation began pressuring the central government to dismiss the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) government in Tamil Nadu. Despite securing a stay on the attachment order, AIADMK leaders were reportedly dissatisfied with the central government's perceived inaction in resolving Jayalalithaa's legal issues. The alliance ultimately collapsed in 1999 when Jayalalithaa withdrew support for the Vajpayee government. This decision followed a period of political maneuvering, including a meeting between Jayalalithaa and Sonia Gandhi, the leader of the Indian National Congress, signaling a potential shift in alliances. The withdrawal of support led to a vote of confidence, which the BJP lost by one vote, resulting in the fall of the government. In the 1999 Lok Sabha elections, the AIADMK aligned with the Congress, while the BJP formed an alliance with Karunanidhi's DMK, demonstrating the fluidity of political alliances in Tamil Nadu.
The 2004 Lok Sabha elections witnessed another shift in alliances, with the DMK parting ways with the NDA and the BJP forming an alliance with the AIADMK. However, this alliance proved to be unsuccessful, failing to win any seats in Tamil Nadu. The BJP officially called off its pact with AIADMK after the elections, marking another period of separation between the two parties. Following the death of Jayalalithaa in 2016, the political landscape of Tamil Nadu underwent significant changes. The AIADMK, under new leadership, began to mend its relationship with the BJP, leading to the formation of an alliance for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections and the 2021 state Assembly polls. Despite the NDA, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, securing a second term in 2019, the alliance once again struggled in Tamil Nadu. The BJP failed to win any seats, while its ally, the AIADMK, managed to win only one seat. In the 2021 Assembly elections, the AIADMK and BJP continued their alliance, but they were ultimately ousted from power, with the DMK-Congress alliance forming the government in the state. The AIADMK won 66 seats, while the BJP managed to secure only 4 seats. The PMK, another alliance partner, won 5 seats. The 2024 Lok Sabha polls saw the AIADMK and the BJP contesting separately. The AIADMK formed an alliance with the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) and Puthiya Tamilagam (PT), while the BJP led its own alliance in the state for the first time. Despite receiving over 23% of the votes, the AIADMK alliance failed to win any seats. The BJP, with allies such as the PMK, TTV Dhinakaran-led Amma Makkal Munnettra Kazagam (AMMK), and GK Vasan's Tamil Maanila Congress (Moopanar), performed relatively well, receiving over 18% of the votes but also failing to open its account. Several smaller outfits contested on the BJP's symbol of the lotus. The DMK-led alliance won all 39 seats in the state, largely due to the division of votes between the AIADMK and BJP alliances. An analysis suggests that if the AIADMK and BJP had contested together, they could have won at least 12 Lok Sabha seats. This potential outcome is a key factor driving the current discussions about a possible revival of the alliance.
The strategic considerations driving the potential revival of the AIADMK-BJP alliance are rooted in the arithmetic of electoral politics in Tamil Nadu. The division of votes between the two parties in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls highlighted the potential benefits of a unified front against the DMK-led alliance. The analysis suggesting that a combined AIADMK-BJP alliance could have secured a significant number of seats underscores the strategic imperative for both parties to overcome their differences and forge a common path forward. The AIADMK's declining vote share over the years has added to the urgency of seeking a strong alliance partner. The party recognizes that a partnership with the BJP could provide the necessary boost to regain its political dominance in Tamil Nadu. For the BJP, an alliance with the AIADMK offers an opportunity to expand its influence in the state and potentially gain representation in the Tamil Nadu Assembly. The BJP's consistent efforts to increase its presence in Tamil Nadu have been met with limited success, making an alliance with a regional powerhouse like the AIADMK an attractive option. However, the path towards a revived alliance is not without its challenges. Past differences, including disagreements over policy matters and personality clashes, need to be addressed and resolved. The AIADMK's concerns about the alleged imposition of Hindi in Tamil Nadu and the aggressive style of politics of some BJP leaders also need to be taken into consideration. Furthermore, the alliance needs to develop a cohesive strategy that resonates with the diverse electorate of Tamil Nadu. This includes addressing issues such as social justice, economic development, and cultural preservation. The success of the AIADMK-BJP alliance will depend on their ability to overcome these challenges and present a united front that effectively addresses the needs and aspirations of the people of Tamil Nadu. The political landscape of Tamil Nadu is constantly evolving, and the AIADMK and BJP need to adapt to these changes to remain relevant and competitive. A successful alliance will require strong leadership, effective communication, and a shared commitment to serving the interests of the people of Tamil Nadu. The potential revival of the AIADMK-BJP alliance represents a significant development in Tamil Nadu politics. Its implications extend beyond mere electoral calculations, impacting the broader political dynamics of the state and the future of its governance. The success of this alliance hinges on the ability of both parties to learn from their past experiences, address current challenges, and forge a shared vision for the future of Tamil Nadu.
Source: EPS meeting Amit Shah revives BJP-AIADMK reunion buzz: How did this alliance perform in the past?