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The Delhi Assembly elections of 2025 are looming, and the recently concluded exit polls paint a concerning picture for Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). A significant majority of the exit polls – eight out of ten – predict a substantial defeat for AAP, forecasting a significant shift in Delhi's political landscape. This prediction marks a potential end to AAP's impressive run in the national capital, where they have held power for the past several years. While two exit polls offered a glimmer of hope for AAP's continued reign, suggesting a possible third term for Kejriwal, the overwhelming consensus points towards a BJP victory.
The discrepancies between the various exit polls highlight the inherent uncertainties involved in such predictions. While some polls suggest a close contest, with AAP securing a minority government, the majority project a clear victory for the BJP. One aggregate prediction estimates AAP winning only 30 out of 70 seats, significantly less than the 35 needed for a majority, while allocating 39 seats to the BJP. This dramatic shift underscores the potential for a substantial change in Delhi's political dynamics. The Congress party, meanwhile, appears to be relegated to the sidelines, with predictions placing them in a distant third position, securing at most only a handful of seats.
AAP, however, has vehemently rejected these predictions, dismissing them as inaccurate and pointing to past instances where exit polls failed to accurately predict the outcome of Delhi's elections. Party leader Sushil Gupta's statement, emphasizing Arvind Kejriwal's work for the people of Delhi and expressing confidence in an AAP victory, reflects the party's determination to defy the polls' forecasts. The party's resilience in the face of negative predictions is underpinned by their past successes, where they overcame similar pessimistic forecasts to secure victory in both Delhi and Punjab. This highlights the inherent limitations of exit polls and the unpredictable nature of electoral politics.
The BJP's campaign, which heavily focused on allegations of corruption against AAP leaders, including Arvind Kejriwal and Manish Sisodia, appears to have played a significant role in shaping the exit poll predictions. The party's relentless focus on these allegations, which have resulted in several AAP leaders facing time in jail, may have successfully eroded public trust in the party. The 'Sheesh Mahal' controversy, focusing on the alleged lavish renovation of the Chief Minister's residence, further amplified these concerns and likely contributed to the negative sentiment reflected in the polls. This stands in stark contrast to AAP's initial rise to power, driven by an anti-corruption movement that resonated deeply with Delhi's electorate.
Despite the accusations, AAP has focused on its achievements in improving education and healthcare sectors, while simultaneously offering discounted power and water bills. However, these policies, lauded by the party as evidence of its commitment to the people, have been criticized by Prime Minister Narendra Modi as 'revdi' or vote-buying tactics. This criticism, coupled with the ongoing friction between AAP and the Lieutenant Governor, who wields considerable power over Delhi's bureaucracy, may have complicated the party's attempts to secure re-election. The legal battle over the LG's powers, currently before the Supreme Court, further underscores the complexities of AAP's governance in Delhi.
In response to these challenges, AAP adopted a more grassroots approach this time around, favoring a low-key, door-to-door campaign that proved successful in 2015. This strategy contrasted sharply with the BJP's high-profile campaign, featuring prominent leaders and extensive media coverage. The effectiveness of these contrasting approaches remains to be seen, with the final results to be announced on Saturday. The upcoming vote count will determine whether the exit polls' predictions accurately reflect the electorate's sentiment or whether AAP can once again defy the odds and secure a third term in power. The contrast between the BJP's high-profile, overtly political campaign and AAP's more subdued approach suggests a deeper divergence in political strategy. Whether this difference played a significant role in shaping the exit poll results remains a crucial question.
Source: Delhi Assembly Election 2025: 'AAP-da' For Arvind Kejriwal? Delhi Exit Polls Predict Rout