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The Delhi Assembly elections have reached their climax, with vote counting scheduled for Saturday. The contest is primarily between the incumbent Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), led by Arvind Kejriwal, and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which is aiming to break its 27-year absence from power in Delhi. Exit polls suggest a BJP victory, raising the stakes significantly for both parties. The results will not only determine the next Delhi government but also impact the political standing of key figures like Kejriwal, whose reputation within the INDIA alliance is also at stake. The Congress party is predicted to secure a distant third place, effectively excluded from the power struggle.
The election campaign focused heavily on populist measures, with both AAP and BJP promising significant financial aid to women and senior citizens, along with improvements to healthcare, infrastructure, and public services. AAP’s key pledges included the Mahila Samman Yojana (monthly financial assistance to women), Sanjeevani Yojana (free medical services for the elderly), and improved water and sanitation. BJP countered with its own financial aid promises, including subsidies on cooking gas, and pledged to implement the central government’s Ayushman Bharat Yojana alongside enhanced health coverage. However, the crucial question remained whether the BJP's promises would resonate with voters as strongly as AAP’s existing welfare schemes. Concerns about the potential discontinuation of existing AAP welfare schemes were raised by the AAP, prompting clarification from the BJP.
The outcome of the election hinges on several key demographic groups. Delhi’s Dalit voters, who traditionally lean toward AAP, may experience a split vote in 2025, potentially benefiting the BJP. The Muslim vote, consistently with AAP in recent elections, is expected to remain largely unchanged. The middle class, which constitutes nearly 40% of the electorate, could prove decisive. Discontent over the state of infrastructure and public services under AAP's decade-long rule might sway them towards BJP. Furthermore, the Union Budget 2025-26's income tax exemptions up to ₹12 lakh could act as an incentive for middle-class voters to support the BJP. The success of BJP’s “double-engine sarkar” strategy, emphasizing the combined strength of the central and state governments, versus the well-known face of Arvind Kejriwal, amidst recent corruption allegations, will be a crucial deciding factor. The BJP’s strategy of keeping its chief ministerial candidate undisclosed, a tactic employed before, also adds intrigue to the race.
The high-profile candidates represent another layer of intrigue. Arvind Kejriwal, contesting from New Delhi, faces a strong challenge from Parvesh Verma of the BJP. While polls suggest BJP’s popularity in the constituency, Kejriwal’s past victories suggest a competitive race. Manish Sisodia, facing corruption charges, is contesting from Jangpura after a change from his previous seat. Atishi, the current Chief Minister, is again running from Kalkaji. The results will not only influence Delhi's political landscape for the next five years but also have wider ramifications for the national political scene, given Kejriwal's influence within the INDIA bloc. The high stakes, combined with the conflicting predictions and numerous influencing factors, make this Delhi election a closely watched and highly unpredictable event.
In conclusion, the Delhi Assembly elections are a tight contest with significant implications for both the AAP and BJP. The outcome will be heavily influenced by how different voter segments respond to the promises and strategies of both parties, and the potential impact of the allegations against key figures. While exit polls suggest a BJP victory, the actual results hold the potential to surprise, given the complexity and unpredictability of the factors at play. Ultimately, the people of Delhi will decide whether they will vote for a continuation of existing welfare schemes under the AAP, or opt for a change under the BJP, offering a new set of promises.
Source: AAP Vs BJP: On Delhi Poll Finale Eve, A Look At Who Has Closer Shot At Victory