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The recent Delhi Assembly elections witnessed a resounding victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), securing a commanding 48 out of 70 seats. This outcome marks a significant turnaround for the BJP, which had secured only eight seats in the 2020 elections. The party's success was particularly pronounced in outer Delhi, bordering Haryana, where it comprehensively defeated the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). This impressive performance allowed the BJP to return to power after a 27-year absence. The BJP's dominance was evident in several parliamentary constituencies; they won nine out of ten seats in West Delhi, eight each in North West Delhi and East Delhi, and seven in New Delhi. Significant gains were also made in Chandni Chowk (six seats), South Delhi (five seats), and North East Delhi (five seats). This represents a stark contrast to the 2020 results, where the BJP failed to win a single seat in New Delhi, West Delhi, South Delhi, and Chandni Chowk. The party’s success stemmed from significant inroads into urban pockets of central and New Delhi, coupled with an almost complete sweep of outer Delhi’s rural areas. A BJP functionary highlighted their success in constituencies bordering Uttar Pradesh (seven out of 13) and Haryana (nine out of 11), areas where they had previously underperformed. Several rural constituencies, including Narela, Mundka, Badli, Najafgarh, Palam, Bijwasan, Matiala, Chhatarpur, and Mehrauli, which saw limited BJP success in past elections, witnessed a dramatic shift in favour of the party this time.
The AAP, despite its significant losses, managed to maintain its support base among specific demographics. The party retained its stronghold in constituencies with a high concentration of Muslim and Dalit populations, as well as areas with numerous unauthorized colonies. The party won all twelve Scheduled Caste (SC) seats in both the 2015 and 2020 elections, while this time they secured eight. The AAP successfully leveraged its efforts to improve amenities in the city's 1,797 unauthorized colonies, connecting them with essential services like sewer and water pipelines, roads, and drainage improvements. This initiative was instrumental in securing support from residents of several colonies, including Gokalpur, Ambedkar Nagar, Kondli, Okhla, Badarpur, Tughlaqabad, Deoli, Kirari, Burari, and Sultanpur Majra, which are known for housing substantial unauthorized colony populations. An AAP functionary emphasized the party's campaign highlighting the government's work in these colonies as a significant factor in their success. While the Muslim vote exhibited signs of division in some constituencies, it largely favoured AAP, contributing to significant victories in Okhla, Seelampur, Matia Mahal, and Ballimaran. Even in areas where Muslims constituted a substantial population but weren't the decisive factor, such as Kirari and Seemapuri, AAP performed reasonably well. The exception was Mustafabad, where Hindu votes consolidated against a divided Muslim vote.
The absence of a pre-election alliance between the AAP and Congress, despite both being partners in the INDIA bloc, proved advantageous to the BJP. Analysis suggests that in 14 constituencies, the BJP's victory margin was smaller than the number of votes received by the Congress candidate. These seats included Timarpur, Badli, Nangloi Jat, Madipur, Rajendra Nagar, New Delhi, Jangpura, Kasturba Nagar, Malviya Nagar, Mehrauli, Chhatarpur, Sangam Vihar, Greater Kailash, and Trilokpuri. Political observers have argued that a potential alliance between AAP and Congress could have altered the election results, potentially preventing the BJP's sweeping victory. While the Congress’s vote share barely resulted in any candidate saving their security deposit (except in Kasturba Nagar, Badli, and Nangloi Jat), a Congress functionary disputed this, suggesting that an alliance, despite potentially curbing the BJP's momentum, could have produced entirely unpredictable outcomes, citing the failure of the joint Lok Sabha election campaign to secure even a single seat. The election results underscore the complex interplay of factors influencing electoral outcomes in Delhi, highlighting the significant role of socio-economic considerations, party strategies, and the impact of alliances and vote division in shaping the political landscape of the capital.
The outcome of the Delhi Assembly elections underscores the success of BJP's targeted campaigning, particularly in areas previously overlooked. Their outreach to rural communities, addressing their concerns and building alliances, played a crucial role in their victory. The BJP’s ability to garner support in rural areas, often ignored by the Delhi government, stands out as a significant factor in their success. This strategic approach, coupled with the division of votes among opposition parties, allowed the BJP to capitalize on opportunities and achieve a decisive win. The elections also reveal the persistent support base of AAP within specific communities, highlighting the continued relevance of local issues and targeted campaigning in shaping electoral outcomes. The absence of a united front among opposition parties provided an opening for the BJP to consolidate its position. Future elections in Delhi may see different coalitions and strategic alliances, leading to fluctuating electoral dynamics.