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The return of Donald Trump to the presidency has cast a shadow of uncertainty over US-China relations, leaving Beijing guessing about the future trajectory of their complex economic and political interplay. While Trump's campaign rhetoric and initial actions suggested an immediate resumption of the trade war, his subsequent pronouncements have presented a more nuanced, albeit still unpredictable, picture. His decision to defer the imposition of tariffs and express a willingness to engage in dialogue with Chinese President Xi Jinping has been interpreted by some in China as a positive initial step. Wang Huiyao, president of the Center for China and Globalization, described this as a 'very positive start,' signaling a potential opening for negotiation and cooperation.
However, this cautious optimism is tempered by Trump's continued reiteration of threats against China on various fronts. He has not abandoned his criticisms of Beijing's trade practices, its role in the climate crisis, and its influence on the global stage. His stated intention to consider a 10% tariff on Chinese imports starting in February underscores the lingering potential for conflict. This ambiguity is highlighted by the contrasting opinions from experts. While some, like Wang, believe China possesses the tools to navigate potential challenges and even benefit from the situation (by offering incentives to exporters or leveraging deflation to maintain market competitiveness), others, such as Jin Canrong, advocate for caution, urging Beijing to not lower its guard against what he perceives as a strategic rival.
The situation is further complicated by Trump's unpredictable nature and his history of shifting stances. His past actions, characterized by a mixture of tough talk on tariffs and professed personal ties with Xi Jinping, suggest that the current phase of cautious engagement might be followed by escalations. This makes it difficult for China to formulate a consistent strategy. The willingness to engage, expressed by both sides, is coupled with a significant degree of suspicion and wariness. While Chinese officials have highlighted the considerable common interests between the two nations and their willingness to work together, they have also expressed reservations about the unpredictability and the potential for unilateral American actions.
Trump's actions regarding international organizations also contribute to the complexities. His moves to withdraw the U.S. from the World Health Organization and the Paris Climate Accords were seen by China as an opportunity to present itself as a champion of global cooperation, further highlighting the ideological differences underlying their relationship. The Chinese Vice Premier, Ding Xuexiang, explicitly denounced protectionism and trade wars at the World Economic Forum in Davos, implicitly criticizing the US approach without direct mention.
Underlying the immediate issues of tariffs and trade is a deeper strategic rivalry. Xi Jinping’s prompt video call with Vladimir Putin following Trump’s inauguration, pledging stronger cooperation with Russia, serves as a potent reminder of this strategic competition and China’s potential willingness to align with Russia against perceived US pressure. This action reflects a broader context of geopolitical maneuvering and demonstrates China's capacity to respond to perceived threats through strategic alliances. This context should not be ignored in evaluating the current tentative engagement between the US and China.
The issue of fentanyl is another point of contention, with Trump directly linking the flow of this drug into the US to China. This creates a complex scenario where the pressure on China to address the issue becomes intertwined with broader trade and strategic considerations. Whether Beijing can meet Trump's demands on this front, and whether such concessions would be enough to prevent the imposition of tariffs, remains unclear. The potential for China to offer concessions, such as increased purchases of US agricultural products or investment in US manufacturing, is also a part of this dynamic negotiation.
Ultimately, the current situation is one of considerable uncertainty. Trump's public statements oscillate between criticisms of China and overtures for negotiation, leaving Beijing to carefully analyze each pronouncement and anticipate the next move. The historical volatility of their relationship, marked by periods of both cooperation and confrontation, suggests that the path forward will likely be fraught with challenges and surprises. The extent to which the two sides can find common ground amidst their significant differences, and whether this current period of tentative engagement will give way to further conflict or genuine cooperation, remains a major question for international relations in the coming years.