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The political landscape of Manipur continues to be volatile, marked by shifting alliances and the ongoing ethnic violence that has plagued the state since May 3, 2023. Recent events have highlighted the fragility of the ruling coalition, with the Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)) becoming the latest party to experience internal conflict regarding its support for the BJP-led government. The controversy began with a letter from the state unit president of the JD(U), Kshetrimayum Biren Singh, to the Governor, announcing the withdrawal of the party's support from the N. Biren Singh-led BJP government. This letter cited the defection of five JD(U) MLAs to the BJP and the party's subsequent inclusion in the INDIA bloc as reasons for the withdrawal. Singh's letter also stated that the lone remaining JD(U) MLA, Md. Abdul Nasir, would be seated with the opposition.
However, this declaration was swiftly countered by the JD(U)'s national unit. In a decisive move, the national leadership dismissed Kshetrimayum Biren Singh's claims as baseless and explicitly stated that the JD(U) continues to support the BJP government in Manipur. The party cited a lack of communication and consultation with the central leadership as the reason for its rejection of the state unit's decision. The national spokesperson, Rajeev Ranjan Prasad, labeled the letter as misleading and highlighted the lack of communication between the state and national units. This act of insubordination led to the immediate dismissal of Kshetrimayum Biren Singh from his position as state unit president.
The JD(U)'s decision to retain its support for the BJP government in Manipur underscores the complex dynamics of state-level politics within the broader context of national alliances. While the JD(U) is a part of the INDIA bloc at the national level, its commitment to the BJP at the state level reveals the often-fluid nature of political affiliations in India. This incident also highlights the internal challenges faced by parties navigating the complexities of coalition politics. The dismissal of Kshetrimayum Biren Singh indicates the national leadership's determination to maintain party discipline and its commitment to its existing alliance with the BJP.
The situation in Manipur is further complicated by the ongoing ethnic violence between the Kuki-Zo and Meitei communities. This violence has already claimed the lives of at least 250 people, injured over a thousand, and displaced more than 60,000. The conflict erupted following a 'Tribal Solidarity March' organized to protest the Meitei community's demand for Scheduled Tribe (ST) status. The political instability caused by shifting alliances within the ruling coalition could further exacerbate the already tense situation in the state. The withdrawal of support from other parties, such as the National People’s Party (NPP) which has announced it would only support the government after the chief minister is replaced, and the Kuki People’s Alliance (KPA), has further destabilized the ruling coalition and cast doubt on its future.
The precarious nature of the BJP's majority in the Manipur assembly, with 37 MLAs out of 60, underscores the significance of the JD(U)'s continued support. While the BJP currently holds a comfortable majority with the support of independents and other allies, the potential for further defections or shifts in alliances remains a real threat. The death of one MLA further reduces the numbers bolstering the government. The ongoing political maneuvering and the ethnic conflict create a volatile atmosphere in Manipur, raising serious concerns about the stability and future of the state. The immediate future of the Manipur government, and the ability to address the urgent humanitarian crisis caused by the ethnic violence, remains uncertain and heavily dependent on the ongoing political dynamics.
Source: JD(U) national unit dismisses claims of withdrawing support from Manipur BJP government