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The recent Israel-Hamas ceasefire agreement, brokered in Doha, Qatar, marks a significant development in the ongoing conflict. The agreement, announced by outgoing US President Joe Biden, President-elect Donald Trump, and the Qatari government, outlines a three-phased approach to ending hostilities. The first phase, spanning 42 days, involves the release of 33 hostages by Hamas and the release of between 900 and 1,650 Palestinian detainees by Israel, encompassing all those detained since October 7, 2023. Concurrently, the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) will withdraw from central Gaza, including the strategically important Netzarim Corridor, and eventually from the Philadelphi Corridor bordering Egypt. This initial phase represents a substantial de-escalation of the conflict, creating a pathway towards a more comprehensive resolution.
The second phase of the agreement, commencing 16 days after the ceasefire's inception, focuses on a near-complete Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and the release of the remaining hostages by Hamas. The number of Palestinian detainees to be released in exchange remains undetermined, leaving this aspect open to further negotiation. The third and final phase encompasses the full reopening of border crossings and the commencement of reconstruction efforts within Gaza. This phased approach allows for incremental progress, mitigating risks and fostering mutual trust between the conflicting parties. However, the agreement's success hinges on the commitment of all involved to fulfilling their obligations during each phase.
The path to this agreement was not straightforward. A similar three-phased plan, often referred to as the 'Biden Plan,' was proposed as early as May 2024. While Hamas reportedly accepted this earlier version, Israel rejected it, citing unacceptable last-minute amendments proposed by Hamas. The Israeli government, under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, initially prioritized the complete destruction of Hamas in Gaza over securing the release of hostages. This stance was influenced by domestic political dynamics; the far-right Otzma Yehudit party held significant sway in the government at that time. However, shifts in the political landscape, including the strengthening of Netanyahu's coalition and pressure from US President-elect Trump's envoy, Steve Witkoff, eventually paved the way for acceptance of the current agreement. The agreement’s acceptance also points to a shifting Israeli calculation that long-term benefits from a Trump second term outweigh the short-term concession of the Gaza withdrawal.
Several aspects of the ceasefire agreement warrant closer examination. Notably, the withdrawal from the Philadelphi Corridor signifies a significant concession by Israel, considering Netanyahu's previous staunch opposition to such a move. While the agreement stipulates withdrawal by the 42nd day, Israeli officials have suggested that this commitment is contingent upon the outcome of the negotiations scheduled for the 16th day. Another pivotal aspect is the release of Palestinian prisoners, including at least 250 serving life sentences. This surpasses previous prisoner exchanges in scale and potentially conflicts with a 2014 Knesset law prohibiting the release of prisoners serving life sentences. This aspect presents a legal and political challenge to the Israeli government.
The implications of the ceasefire extend beyond the immediate cessation of hostilities. For Hamas, the ceasefire affords a crucial opportunity to regroup and rebuild after significant losses suffered during the conflict. While achieving a tactical victory by securing a ceasefire, the group still retains operational capability, illustrated by recent attacks causing Israeli casualties. Hamas aims to leverage this opportunity to secure a more prominent role in Gaza’s future governance. For Israel, the ceasefire represents a complex outcome. While significantly weakening the Iranian axis and eliminating key Hamas leaders, it falls short of achieving its declared objective of completely removing Hamas from Gaza. This failure could expose Netanyahu to domestic criticism from his far-right allies. Yet, the return of Israeli hostages remains a substantial political win, likely to ease public pressure.
The agreement's long-term success depends significantly on the actions of both sides and external factors. Hamas' commitment to releasing all hostages and maintaining a cessation of hostilities is paramount. The extent of Israel's willingness to compromise during the second phase negotiations, particularly regarding the final withdrawal from Gaza and the number of Palestinian prisoners to be released, will be crucial. International involvement, particularly from the US under President-elect Trump, will play a defining role in supporting the agreement’s implementation and fostering long-term stability. The potential for further tensions and the ongoing challenges of Gaza’s reconstruction and political future highlight the precarious balance upon which this hard-won ceasefire rests. The coming months will be a critical test for all parties involved, and the region’s future hinges on the success of the subsequent phases of the agreement. The involvement of Egypt and international pressure will be key in achieving lasting peace.
Source: What are the key takeaways from the Israel-Hamas ceasefire agreement?