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The recent Israel-Hamas ceasefire agreement, brokered in Doha, Qatar, marks a significant development in the protracted conflict. The deal, structured in three phases, outlines a phased approach to de-escalation, prisoner exchanges, and the eventual reopening of border crossings. The first phase, spanning 42 days, centers on the immediate release of 33 hostages by Hamas in exchange for the release of between 900 and 1,650 Palestinian detainees by Israel, including all those held since October 7, 2023. Concurrently, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will initiate a withdrawal from central Gaza, encompassing the Netzarim Corridor, a strategically important area that bisects Gaza, extending to the Mediterranean. This initial withdrawal also includes a phased departure from the Philadelphi Corridor, a border zone along the Gaza-Egypt boundary. The announcement of the ceasefire and hostage exchange involved high-profile international figures, including outgoing US President Joe Biden, President-elect Donald Trump, and the Qatari government. However, it's noteworthy that, at the time of the article's writing, the Israeli cabinet hadn't yet formally voted on the proposal, pending a crucial discussion and ratification process.
The path to this ceasefire agreement was not straightforward. A strikingly similar proposal, often referred to as the “Biden Plan,” had been on the table since May 2024. This plan, mirroring the current three-phased structure, included a 42-day cessation of hostilities and the initial release of 33 Israeli hostages. While Hamas reportedly accepted this earlier version in May, Israel rejected it, citing unacceptable last-minute amendments from Hamas, even as the IDF launched attacks on Rafah. The Israeli government, under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, initially prioritized the complete destruction of Hamas in Gaza, seemingly placing less emphasis on the urgent retrieval of the hostages. This stance was influenced by the internal political dynamics within Israel's government. Itamar Ben-Gvir's far-right Otzma Yehudit party initially held significant influence, effectively vetoing potential agreements. However, a shift in the political landscape, following the inclusion of Gideon Sa'ar's New Hope party in the coalition in September, significantly altered the political balance, weakening Ben-Gvir's leverage. Ben-Gvir's subsequent admission that he'd previously blocked similar proposals underscores the change in the political climate leading to the eventual acceptance of the deal. The Israeli military's significant successes against Hezbollah and the elimination of key Hamas leaders also played a role in the shift in Israel’s negotiating position. This success, coupled with pressure from Trump's Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, tipped the scales in favor of accepting the agreement.
The terms of the ceasefire agreement present several points of note, particularly concerning the withdrawal from the Philadelphi Corridor and the release of Palestinian prisoners. Netanyahu's prior strong opposition to withdrawing from the Philadelphi Corridor was a major sticking point in past negotiations, contributing to tensions with former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. This opposition was also significant because Egypt, too, had expressed its disapproval of a persistent Israeli military presence in the corridor. While the agreement stipulates the IDF's departure within the 42-day first phase, Israeli media outlets cite unnamed officials casting doubt on the unqualified nature of this commitment, implying that the final decision remains subject to further negotiation after the initial 16 days. The other significant aspect is the planned release of Palestinian prisoners, notably the potential inclusion of at least 250 serving life sentences. This is arguably the most contentious aspect of the deal, given Israel's history of large-scale prisoner exchanges and a 2014 Knesset law designed to limit the release of prisoners serving life sentences. Such a concession is considerably more generous than prior exchanges, raising legal and political questions within Israel regarding the 2014 law. The significant number of prisoners being released compared to the number of hostages recovered is also a noteworthy aspect, continuing a historical precedent of disproportionate exchanges in Israel's favor.
The ceasefire, while welcomed, presents a mixed bag of implications for both Hamas and Israel. For Hamas, this represents a strategic victory, allowing the group to recover and regroup after sustained military action. Despite this, Hamas's continuing capacity to carry out attacks and its persistence in maintaining a presence in any future Gaza government are crucial considerations. The absence of the Palestinian Authority's return to Gaza in the reports on the ceasefire deal signals Hamas's intent to establish a position similar to Hezbollah's role in Lebanon's post-civil war government. The ceasefire, while offering a much-needed respite, does not guarantee long-term peace or resolve the underlying issues of the conflict. For Israel, the ceasefire comes at a time of significant weakening of the Iranian axis and the elimination of key Hamas leaders. Yet, the failure to achieve its stated objective of fully removing Hamas from Gaza through military means represents a setback, particularly for Netanyahu and his right-wing allies. The release of all hostages will undoubtedly be a political win for Netanyahu, especially given the mounting pressure from the families of those held captive. However, the deal's domestic repercussions remain uncertain. The potentially lopsided prisoner exchange could alienate Netanyahu's right-wing base while simultaneously inviting criticism from opposition parties, accusing the government of politically motivated delays in securing the hostages’ release. The future trajectory of Israel-Hamas relations hinges significantly on what President-elect Trump offers Netanyahu in exchange for his adherence to the ceasefire deal.
Source: What are the key takeaways from the Israel-Hamas ceasefire agreement?