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The upcoming Delhi Assembly elections promise a compelling three-way contest between the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and the Indian National Congress. Arvind Kejriwal, the incumbent Chief Minister and AAP leader, seeks a third consecutive victory, aiming for a political hat-trick. However, the BJP, eager to disrupt AAP's dominance, and the Congress, despite recent electoral setbacks, are determined to make their presence felt. The relationship between AAP and Congress is particularly fraught, having transitioned from a temporary alliance during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections to a state of open antagonism, a dynamic the BJP is clearly exploiting. The Congress's aggressive campaign, featuring the deployment of prominent candidates like Sandeep Dikshit, and their pointed attacks on the AAP government's governance and alleged corruption, indicates a concerted effort to regain political relevance in Delhi after two consecutive elections where they failed to secure a single seat.
The historical data offers a fascinating insight into the shifting dynamics of Delhi's political landscape. The rise of AAP has been closely correlated with the decline of the Congress. The Congress's vote share plummeted from 40.31% in 2008 to 24.55% in 2013, while AAP secured 29.49% of the vote, winning 28 seats. In 2015, this trend continued, with Congress suffering a 15% drop in vote share, while AAP’s support base increased by approximately the same margin. Although the BJP's vote share remained relatively stable, the trend clearly highlighted a significant transfer of support from Congress voters to AAP. The 2020 elections saw a further decline in Congress’s vote share, falling to a mere 4.26%. While AAP maintained a steady base, the BJP saw its vote share improve significantly, demonstrating a shift of votes from Congress to BJP. This historical trend suggests that Congress could potentially siphon votes away from AAP.
While Kejriwal downplays the Congress threat, emphasizing the primary contest as between AAP and BJP, ignoring the Congress's potential to act as a spoiler would be a strategic miscalculation. Even a modest increase in Congress's vote share could significantly impact the outcome in several constituencies. Although this might not translate into a dramatic rise in seats won, it could prove crucial in close races, potentially tipping the balance in favor of the BJP. AAP, holding 62 of the 70 seats, is far more vulnerable to such vote-splitting than the BJP, which currently holds only 8 seats. The BJP, buoyed by its recent successes in Haryana and Maharashtra, is aggressively campaigning, with Prime Minister Modi himself leading the charge. Their confident stance hinges on a successful exploitation of the three-way contest, aiming to benefit from a divided opposition vote.
The challenge for Kejriwal is substantial. After ten years in power, his administration faces the headwinds of anti-incumbency. He needs to effectively counter the BJP's aggressive campaign while simultaneously preventing a significant erosion of his vote bank, which includes crucial demographics such as slum dwellers, Purvanchalis, Muslims, and residents of unauthorized colonies. These groups represent a significant portion of AAP's support base, and any substantial shift in their voting patterns could have a decisive impact on the final results. The Congress's renewed vigor, coupled with the BJP's aggressive campaign, creates a complex electoral landscape where complacency is a significant risk for Kejriwal's party. Therefore, while AAP enjoys a considerable advantage based on past performance, the upcoming elections present a far more intricate challenge than simply facing off against the BJP alone. The Congress factor, previously dismissed as insignificant, has the potential to drastically alter the outcome of the election.
The success of each party hinges not only on their individual campaigning efforts but also on how effectively they manage to mobilize their respective support bases and counter the strategies of their opponents. The BJP’s focus is on capitalizing on any division among the other parties, while the Congress aims to regain lost ground and prove its continued relevance in Delhi's political sphere. AAP, meanwhile, must navigate the delicate balance of maintaining its existing support while preventing any significant erosion of its vote share. The outcome of the Delhi Assembly elections will not only determine the next government but also will have profound implications for the national political landscape, shaping strategies and alliances in the run-up to the next general election.
Source: Delhi elections: Why Arvind Kejriwal should be wary of Congress