China's Tibet dam: Threat to India's water security.

China's Tibet dam: Threat to India's water security.
  • China's mega-dam threatens India's water security.
  • Project lacks transparency, ignoring downstream impact.
  • India must demand consultation and equitable use.

The recent announcement by the Chinese government regarding the approval of a massive hydropower project on the Yarlung Tsangpo River in Tibet has ignited significant concerns in India, a lower riparian state. The project, estimated to cost over $137 billion, dwarfs even the Three Gorges Dam in scale and promises to generate nearly 300 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually. However, the lack of prior consultation with India, and China's dismissive claim that the project will have no negative downstream impacts, has raised serious questions about China's commitment to international cooperation and responsible water resource management. This unilateral action adds another layer of complexity to the already strained relationship between the two nations, highlighting the geopolitical tensions inherent in shared river systems.

The proposed dam's location in the Big Bend area of the Yarlung Tsangpo, just upstream from the river's entry into India (where it's known as the Siang River), presents a direct threat to India's water security. The project's scale, involving the diversion of a significant portion of the river's flow and the construction of extensive tunnels, will inevitably disrupt the natural flow regime of the Brahmaputra River system. This disruption will have far-reaching consequences for the millions of people in India who rely on the river for irrigation, drinking water, and sustenance. The potential for irregular water flows, reduced fish catches, and loss of fertile sediment deposits mirrors the negative impacts already experienced by downstream countries along the Mekong River due to similar Chinese hydropower projects. The ecological fragility and earthquake-prone nature of the region further exacerbate the risks associated with the project.

The incident recalls a previous event in 2004, when an artificial lake formed on the Parechu River, a tributary of the Sutlej, in Tibet. Despite relatively good relations with China at the time, the incident highlighted the potential for unforeseen disasters and the importance of timely information sharing. While preventive measures mitigated the downstream impact in that instance, the scale of the proposed Yarlung Tsangpo project is exponentially larger, raising fears of far more significant consequences. This concern is amplified by the lack of transparency surrounding the project's environmental impact assessment and the absence of meaningful engagement with India on technical parameters.

India's past efforts at diplomatic engagement with China on trans-border river issues have yielded limited results. While three memoranda of understanding (MoUs) have been signed regarding the sharing of monsoon season data, China has been reluctant to provide broader cooperation, including the sharing of lean season data or meaningful discussions on equitable water allocation. This pattern of behaviour underscores a broader trend in China's dealings with its neighbours on shared water resources, characterized by a lack of transparency and a disregard for the interests of downstream states. This approach stands in stark contrast to India's responsible management of the Indus River under the Indus Waters Treaty, even amidst challenging bilateral relations with Pakistan.

While neither India nor China is a signatory to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses, the principles of equitable and reasonable utilization of shared waters and the obligation not to cause significant harm to downstream states remain relevant and crucial. India's Ministry of External Affairs has voiced its concerns through diplomatic channels, highlighting the need for transparency and consultation. However, given the unprecedented scale and implications of the project, quiet diplomacy may no longer be sufficient. India needs to adopt a more assertive approach, demanding clarifications on the project's technical details, environmental impact assessments, and adherence to international norms. This requires a concerted effort through official channels and in the public domain, advocating for the suspension of further work until full consultation and mutual understanding are achieved.

In addition to formal diplomatic efforts, India should explore alternative strategies to strengthen its water security. This could include accelerating the development of its own hydropower projects and other water management infrastructure. However, any such efforts should prioritize environmental sustainability and the needs of local populations. Furthermore, engaging non-governmental organizations (NGOs) to raise awareness and advocate for responsible dam construction at international forums could amplify India's concerns and garner wider support. Ultimately, addressing this challenge necessitates a multifaceted response, combining diplomatic pressure, domestic capacity building, and international advocacy to ensure the protection of India's water security and the well-being of its citizens.

Source: Perils of a Chinese mega dam

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