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China's population continued its downward trend in 2024, marking the third consecutive year of decline despite a marginal increase in births. This decline, a stark contrast to previous years of rapid growth, highlights the significant challenges faced by the world's most populous nation as it grapples with an aging population and declining fertility rates. While the number of births rose to 9.54 million in 2024, a modest increase from the 9.02 million recorded in 2023, this represents a significant drop from the over 16 million births in 2015, the final year of the one-child policy. This slight uptick, attributed partially to the Year of the Dragon being considered auspicious for births in Chinese culture, is not expected to reverse the long-term trend. The increase in births is primarily attributed to couples delaying families during the pandemic, making this a temporary anomaly.
The decrease in deaths, from 11.10 million in 2023 to 10.93 million in 2024, offers only minor relief. This slight reduction does not offset the overall decline in population, which fell from 1.410 billion in 2023 to 1.408 billion in 2024. The underlying demographic reality is far more concerning. China's fertility rate remains far below the replacement rate of 2.1, signifying that each generation will be significantly smaller than the previous one. This situation is further exacerbated by a shrinking number of women of childbearing age and a growing reluctance among young people to start families, factors deeply intertwined with economic anxieties and societal shifts.
The aging of China's population is a pivotal factor contributing to this demographic shift. The proportion of the population aged 60 and older has surged from 13% in 2010 to over 22% in 2024. This rapid aging is projected to continue, with the United Nations estimating that those aged 80 or older will constitute over 5% of the population by the end of 2025 and a staggering 10% by 2050. This dramatic increase in the elderly population places immense strain on the country's healthcare system, pension system, and social welfare infrastructure. The rise in age-related diseases, such as Alzheimer's, heart disease, and cancer, further compounds these challenges. The cost of elderly care is placing a considerable burden on families and the economy, diminishing household savings and impacting overall spending.
The government's efforts to encourage higher birth rates through various incentives, including cash bonuses and extended parental leave, have yielded limited success. These measures haven't been able to overcome the deep-seated societal and economic factors influencing young people's decisions regarding marriage and family planning. The economic downturn in recent years has further dampened enthusiasm for starting families, adding another layer of complexity to the issue. The cultural taboo surrounding death, once a defining characteristic of Chinese society, is fading as the population ages, forcing a more direct confrontation with the realities of mortality and its implications.
The accuracy of China's population data remains a subject of debate. The figures released annually by the National Bureau of Statistics are based on surveys of a limited number of households, raising concerns about their reliability. The once-a-decade census provides a more accurate representation, but even that might not fully capture the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The precise number of COVID-19 deaths in China remains unknown, with discrepancies between official figures and independent estimates ranging into the millions. This uncertainty complicates the already complex picture of China's demographic trends. Without substantial immigration—a solution utilized by other countries facing similar challenges—China is on a path towards a significantly smaller population in the coming decades. The UN projects a population of 639 million by the end of the century, less than half its current size.
The challenges facing China are not isolated but rather represent a global trend. Many developed nations are experiencing similar issues with declining birth rates and aging populations. However, China's situation is particularly acute due to its rapid pace of aging and extremely low fertility rate. The long-term consequences of this demographic shift are far-reaching, potentially impacting economic growth, social stability, and the country's global standing. Addressing this challenge requires a multi-pronged approach that tackles both the economic anxieties and the cultural factors influencing reproductive decisions. This includes not only financial incentives but also broader societal changes that create a more supportive environment for families, particularly young families.
Source: China sees a fresh decline in population, despite a rise in births