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The recent cross-border airstrikes by Pakistan into Afghanistan, resulting in the deaths of Afghan civilians, have significantly escalated tensions between the two nations. This action, ostensibly targeting the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a group responsible for numerous attacks within Pakistan, has ignited a firestorm of controversy and condemnation from the Afghan government. The irony of Pakistan's actions is not lost on observers, considering the TTP's origins are deeply rooted in Pakistan's own history of supporting and sheltering various terrorist groups. Hillary Clinton's 2011 warning regarding Pakistan harboring ‘snakes’ that would inevitably turn against it rings chillingly true in this context. The Afghan government's sharp rebuke, summoning the Pakistani charge d'affaires and issuing a strong protest, underscores the gravity of the situation. The statement explicitly highlighted the violation of Afghan sovereignty and warned of repercussions, signifying a potential escalation beyond diplomatic channels.
The timing of the attacks, following a recent deadly assault on Pakistani security forces, suggests a reactive measure by Pakistan. However, the broader context reveals a much more complex and entrenched issue. Pakistan's ongoing military operations in its tribal areas, bordering Afghanistan, have often led to unintended consequences, fueling resentment among local populations. These operations, often perceived as heavy-handed and meddlesome, have inadvertently contributed to instability and recruitment for various militant groups. The arrests of Pashtun Tahaffuz Movement (PTM) leaders, advocating for peace and an end to the exploitation of Pashtun communities, further exacerbates this situation. This action by the Pakistani government has fueled alienation amongst the Pashtuns, potentially driving them towards extremism. The unstable environment along the border, coupled with existing grievances and perceived injustices, makes recruitment for militant groups considerably easier.
The Taliban's response to the Pakistani airstrikes is fraught with complexities. While pledging retribution, the Taliban leadership is internally divided, with significant factions having close ties to Pakistan. This internal division, combined with the influence of powerful figures like Sirajuddin Haqqani, who is seen as more pro-Pakistan than Afghan, creates a challenging situation for Kabul. The assassination of Khalil Haqqani, Sirajuddin's uncle, further complicates matters, suggesting potential internal conflicts and potential outside involvement. The Pakistani airstrikes can be interpreted as a show of force aimed at influencing decision-making in Kabul and pressuring the Taliban to act against TTP factions operating within Afghanistan. This highlights Pakistan's ongoing strategic ambition to exert control and influence over its neighbor.
The consequences of this escalating conflict extend beyond the immediate Pakistani-Afghan border. The potential for retaliation by the Afghan Taliban, including cross-border incursions, is a significant concern. Moreover, the existing instability increases the risk of further empowerment of groups such as the Islamic State in Khorasan (IS-K), which is already growing in strength and reportedly cooperating with the TTP and al-Qaeda. The UN reports highlighting the strengthening of IS-K and its potential to become a regional threat, particularly with its propaganda aimed at exploiting Hindu-Muslim divisions in India, are alarming. India, given its proximity and concerns regarding regional stability, needs to engage actively with Kabul and Kandahar, monitoring the diverse players operating in the volatile region, including a reported resurgence of al-Qaeda in Nangarhar.
The situation along the Durand Line is exceptionally precarious. The convergence of various factors—internal divisions within the Taliban, Pashtun nationalism, and Pakistan's enduring ambition to dominate Afghanistan—creates a volatile mix. Pakistan's actions must be understood within this broader context, acknowledging its consistent drive to influence Afghan affairs. The potential for a major backlash, both from local Taliban leaders and potentially coordinated action by Kabul, is high, presenting a serious risk of widespread conflict. This volatile situation underscores the need for international engagement and a multi-faceted approach to address the root causes of instability and prevent further escalation. The future of the region hangs precariously in the balance, demanding a complex and cautious response from all involved parties.
Source: Opinion | A Murky Rivalry Is Brewing In India's Neighbourhood