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The recent Boxing Day Test match between Australia and India at the Melbourne Cricket Ground (MCG) has dramatically altered the landscape of the World Test Championship (WTC) qualification race. India's defeat has significantly hampered their chances of reaching the final, a position they once held firmly. The article meticulously outlines the complex scenarios that now determine India's fate, highlighting the precarious nature of their situation and the crucial role of the upcoming Sydney Cricket Ground (SCG) Test. The defeat marks a turning point; for the first time in this WTC cycle, India's qualification isn't solely in their own hands. Their win percentage has dropped to 52.78%, placing them behind Australia and significantly trailing the already-qualified South Africa.
The path forward for India is exceedingly narrow. Their best-case scenario requires a victory in the SCG Test, pushing their win percentage to 55.26%. Even with this win, their hopes rest on Australia failing to win any of their remaining matches against Sri Lanka. A draw in the SCG Test and a 2-2 draw in the remaining Australia-Sri Lanka series would create a tie between India and Australia at 55.26%. In this specific scenario, India would claim the final spot by virtue of having won more series (three versus Australia's two). However, if Australia manages to secure more than eight points in their series with Sri Lanka (a possibility even with draws), they would surpass India.
Australia's win at the MCG has considerably improved their prospects. A victory at the SCG would guarantee their qualification, irrespective of the Australia-Sri Lanka series outcome, raising their win percentage to 57%. Even a draw at the SCG leaves them with a viable path to qualification, needing only one draw in their series against Sri Lanka. This is because even if Sri Lanka wins both Tests against Australia, their win percentage (53.85%) might not surpass Australia's. Should India win at the SCG, Australia would still need just one win against Sri Lanka to overtake India’s potential 55.26% win percentage. The MCG win provides Australia with the momentum and the edge in this final stage of the WTC race.
Sri Lanka, already facing a setback after their series loss to South Africa, finds their chances virtually extinguished. Any result other than a draw in the SCG Test would eliminate them from contention. Their only path to the top two involves winning both matches against Australia while simultaneously needing a draw in the SCG Test. This improbable scenario would result in Sri Lanka finishing with a win percentage of 53.85%, still potentially behind Australia (53.51%) and definitively behind India (51.75%). Their hopes rest on a confluence of unlikely events, making their chances exceedingly slim.
The remaining matches hold immense significance, each result potentially shifting the balance of power. The intense pressure on the players, the strategic decisions made by the captains, and the overall performance of the teams will undoubtedly be closely scrutinized. The fate of two teams vying for a place in the prestigious WTC final hangs precariously in the balance, making this concluding phase of the cycle a thrilling spectacle for cricket fans worldwide. The contrasting fortunes of India and Australia after the MCG Test highlight the unpredictable nature of the sport and the razor-thin margins that can separate victory from defeat in high-stakes international cricket. The coming weeks will determine which team will join South Africa in the final at Lord's next June.
Source: India's WTC Final chances not over yet: How can they qualify after Boxing day Test defeat?