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The World Test Championship (WTC) 2023-25 points table has undergone a dramatic shift following India's disheartening 0-3 loss to New Zealand. The subcontinent's recent events have propelled South Africa and New Zealand into strong contention for a spot in the WTC final. India, once comfortably leading, has now been overtaken by Australia. With seven series remaining in the cycle, five teams remain in the race, making this the most competitive WTC cycle yet. Analyzing the scenarios for each of the top contenders reveals a thrilling climax to the championship.
India's hopes of securing a place in the final are now firmly dependent on a remarkable turnaround in their upcoming series against Australia. They face an uphill battle, needing a 5-0 or 4-0 victory to surpass Australia and reach a PCT above 65%. Even a 4-1 win, reaching 64.1%, leaves them vulnerable to being overtaken by South Africa (69.4%), Sri Lanka (69.2%), or New Zealand (64.3%). A 2-3 loss in Australia would further solidify Australia's position and likely result in India missing out on the final.
South Africa, having spent the initial phase of the cycle in the lower ranks, has re-emerged as a significant contender after a decisive 2-0 victory in Bangladesh. With four crucial home Tests remaining, a clean sweep would guarantee their spot in the final with a 69.4% PCT, as only Australia could potentially match their points. Even three wins in four would secure them a strong position with a 61% PCT, but they would require other teams to slip up.
New Zealand, the inaugural WTC champions, were initially left out of the final spot contention after a disappointing series in Sri Lanka. However, their resounding 3-0 win in India has breathed new life into their campaign. A 3-0 victory against England at home would see them achieve a maximum PCT of 64.3%. However, they would still be vulnerable if either South Africa or Sri Lanka, or both Australia and India, exceed their PCT. A draw in the South Africa-Sri Lanka series would solidify New Zealand's position, as only one of Australia or India could then surpass their PCT. Conversely, if New Zealand fails to maximize points against England, their PCT falls below 60%, requiring favorable outcomes from other teams.
Australia, currently leading the points table due to India's recent struggles, are set to face a tough challenge in their remaining series against India and Sri Lanka. Winning at least five of their seven remaining matches would give them a strong chance of defending their title. They have the opportunity to gain an advantage by taking points off their direct competitors in the upcoming series. A 4-0 win against India followed by a 0-2 loss to Sri Lanka could prove insufficient for Australia, as both New Zealand (64.3% with a 3-0 win against England) and Sri Lanka (69.2% with a 2-0 win against South Africa) could surpass their PCT.
Sri Lanka has risen through the ranks after consecutive wins against England and New Zealand, and now has four matches remaining. A clean sweep in their remaining matches would propel them to a 69.2% PCT, only surpassable if India wins the Border Gavaskar Trophy by a 5-0 margin. Three wins in four would secure a 61% PCT, giving them a competitive chance, but would require other teams to lose points.
Source: WTC Scenarios: India need big result in Australia after home stumble