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The Wayanad Lok Sabha bypoll in India witnessed a significantly low voter turnout, raising concerns for the Congress party, particularly given their ambitious target of securing a victory margin exceeding 5 lakh votes for Congress candidate Priyanka Gandhi Vadra. This bypoll was necessitated by the resignation of Rahul Gandhi, Priyanka's brother, who vacated the seat to retain his other constituency, Rae Bareli. The voter turnout of 64.72% represents a substantial decrease from the previous election, marking the lowest turnout in the constituency since its formation in 2009. This decline contrasts sharply with the 80.37% turnout during the 2019 election when Rahul Gandhi contested, resulting in a victory margin of 4.31 lakh votes.
While Congress leaders express confidence in Priyanka Gandhi's victory in her inaugural electoral contest, they remain uncertain about exceeding Rahul Gandhi's victory margin of 3.64 lakh votes achieved in the April 2024 General Elections. This uncertainty stems from the unexpectedly low voter turnout, despite a vigorous campaign led by national and state Congress leaders, including Rahul Gandhi, AICC general secretaries K.C. Venugopal and Deepa Dasmunshi, and Karnataka Deputy Chief Minister D.K. Shivakumar. The campaign also included the participation of Sonia Gandhi, Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah, and Telangana Chief Minister A. Revanth Reddy, who attended the nomination submission. Priyanka Gandhi actively engaged with voters through street corner meetings and led a massive roadshow in Kalpetta.
In response to the voter apathy, Congress leaders have revised their projected victory margin to 4 lakh votes, acknowledging the need for introspection regarding the bypoll's outcome. A victory margin below 3 lakh votes would be considered an embarrassment for the party. The CPI fielded veteran Sathyan Mokeri, while the BJP opted for Navya Haridas, a newcomer to parliamentary politics. Poll observers attribute the low voter turnout to a sense that the election was unnecessary, a lack of broader parliamentary implications, and a dampened local sentiment following the Meppadi landslides in July. Additionally, agricultural workers' reluctance to sacrifice a workday and questions regarding Rahul Gandhi's performance may have contributed to the electorate's apathy.
Priyanka Gandhi's foray into the bypoll aimed to unite the Congress party's disparate factions. Her campaign drew parallels to her grandmother, former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, who had a profound emotional connection with Kerala's populace. However, some sources criticize her entry into the electoral arena as ill-advised, arguing that it provides the ruling BJP with ammunition to criticize the Congress party's dynastic politics. A win for Priyanka Gandhi could also lead to the emergence of dual power centers within the party, especially considering the political ambitions of her husband, Robert Vadra, a businessman who has openly expressed his aspirations. The real battle is perceived to be unfolding in the Palakkad Assembly bypoll, scheduled for November 20. A three-cornered contest is expected in this constituency. However, political parties express concern regarding a potential decline in voter engagement, mirroring the pattern observed in the Chelakkara Assembly bypoll, which saw a lower turnout compared to the 2021 Assembly elections.
The Wayanad bypoll results, despite the low voter turnout, hold significant implications for the Congress party. The party's ability to secure a substantial victory margin for Priyanka Gandhi, despite the challenges, will be a key indicator of their strength in Kerala. Moreover, her entry into the political arena and the subsequent dynamic within the Congress party will be closely watched as the country moves towards the next general elections.
Source: Wayanad bypoll: Priyanka Gandhi’s 5-lakh victory target faces test after low voter turnout