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The recent authorization by President Joe Biden allowing Ukraine to utilize American-made Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) within Russian territory marks a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict. This decision, made weeks before the end of Biden's presidency and shortly after a series of substantial Russian missile and drone attacks on Ukraine, has drawn fierce condemnation from the Kremlin. Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesperson, accused Washington of directly involving itself in the conflict and fueling the flames of war, echoing sentiments previously expressed by President Vladimir Putin. The White House and President-elect Donald Trump have yet to officially comment, however, Trump's son, Donald Trump Jr., voiced concern about the potential for World War III, highlighting his father's campaign promise to negotiate peace in Ukraine. This move raises critical questions about the potential ramifications and the future trajectory of the war.
The justification for the US decision remains a point of contention. While the official statement remains unclear, the article suggests the deployment of North Korean troops in Russia's Kursk region, following a Ukrainian incursion in August, played a crucial role. The presence of North Korean soldiers and allegations of weapons supplies to Moscow from Pyongyang further complicated the geopolitical landscape. Ukraine, under President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's leadership, has persistently pressed its Western allies for authorization to use long-range missiles against Russia, citing slow but steady Russian gains in eastern Ukraine. Al Jazeera's diplomatic correspondent, James Bays, highlighted the Western nations' aim to support Ukraine in the areas of Russia that are currently under Ukrainian control, like Kursk. The US secretly provided ATACMS missiles to Ukraine in March; however, their use inside Russian territory had previously been restricted. By April, Ukraine had already utilized the missiles twice within Russian-annexed Crimea.
The ATACMS missiles themselves are significant due to their range. Developed by Lockheed Martin in the 1980s, these missiles have a range of 300km (190 miles), considerably expanding Ukraine's striking capabilities. They can be launched using HIMARS launchers (provided by the US) and M270 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (supplied by the UK). Prior to the ATACMS, the US had provided Ukraine with shorter-range missiles capable of firing up to 165km. This upgrade dramatically increases Ukraine's ability to target Russian military infrastructure and supply lines far beyond the front lines. The focus of these strikes is likely to be around the Kursk region, where Ukrainian forces had previously seized territory and where significant concentrations of Russian and North Korean troops are reportedly located. Experts, such as Timothy Ash of Chatham House, point out that the ability to strike Russian supply chains is crucial for Ukraine, and this action could also strengthen Ukraine's negotiating position in future talks, making it harder for Russia to dictate terms regarding military capabilities.
The reactions of Ukraine and Russia were predictable and polarizing. Zelenskyy's response was measured and implied imminent action, suggesting the missiles would speak for themselves. Moscow, on the other hand, viewed the decision as a profound escalation, highlighting the increased risk of direct US involvement. Russian lawmaker Maria Butina warned of the risk of World War III. Putin's previous warnings against providing Ukraine with long-range missiles were disregarded, and Russia responded with its largest missile and drone strikes on Ukraine in months, targeting energy infrastructure and causing significant damage and loss of life. These attacks further solidified the worsening situation and emphasized the escalating tensions between the two nations. The UK and France, having already supplied Ukraine with Storm Shadow missiles, could also permit their use inside Russian territory, potentially widening the scope of the conflict even further. France’s openness to allowing this use signals an expansion of the conflict and further aggravation of the situation.
The future remains uncertain. The short time frame before the Trump administration takes office introduces a significant element of unpredictability. Trump's stated desire for peace, coupled with his expressed willingness to negotiate with Putin, casts doubt on the continuation of unwavering US military support for Ukraine. While Putin congratulated Trump on his victory, this hasn't stopped ongoing Russian attacks. The situation hinges on the unpredictable actions of various actors, with potential for renewed escalation, further Ukrainian advancements, and the ongoing need to supply additional weapons to Ukraine. The coming months will likely witness intensified fighting, with the outcome highly dependent on the strategic decisions of all parties involved. The current situation underscores the dangerous implications of the conflict, making a peaceful resolution even more elusive.
Source: Ukraine gets green light to use US long-range missiles: What’s next?