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The 2024 US presidential election has delivered a significant outcome for India and the world, with the return of Donald Trump to the White House. While the US-India relationship has remained strong regardless of the administration in power, Trump's second term is likely to bring both opportunities and challenges for New Delhi. The article highlights the potential impact on various areas of cooperation and tension between the two nations.
One of the most anticipated outcomes of Trump's victory is a shift in US-Russia relations. Trump's personal affinity for Vladimir Putin and his less confrontational approach towards Moscow could ease pressure on India, which has sought to maintain a balanced relationship with both countries. This could allow New Delhi more freedom in navigating its strategic ties with Russia without facing undue pressure from Washington. Additionally, the article suggests that India might be relieved to escape the critical pronouncements on human rights and religious freedom from a Democratic administration.
However, the article also points out potential areas of friction. Trump's penchant for hardline reciprocal tariffs could pose a challenge to India, which prefers a more discreet approach to trade matters. Despite this, India might be able to navigate this by engaging in strategic flattery and accommodation, leveraging its economic strength and shared business interests. Another concern is the potential for stricter immigration policies under a Trump II administration. While Trump himself has expressed some support for legal immigration, his inner circle includes hardliners who could implement policies restricting skilled worker visas, potentially impacting Indian professionals.
The article further explores the potential implications of Trump's foreign policy approach on the subcontinent. His unpredictable nature and lack of historical awareness could lead to unexpected snafus in US-India relations. For instance, Trump's past attempt to mediate the Kashmir issue despite India's opposition exemplifies his tendency to act without due consideration. While India might be able to manage these inconsistencies, other countries, such as Ukraine, could face a more challenging situation. Trump's potential withdrawal of support for Ukraine could force it to concede territory to Russia to secure peace. Furthermore, Taiwan's position could be undermined as Trump's administration might demand financial commitments before offering guarantees against Chinese aggression.
Overall, the article presents a nuanced analysis of the potential impact of Trump's second term on India and the world. It acknowledges both the potential benefits, such as relaxed pressure on Russia ties and a more favorable stance towards India's economic interests, as well as the challenges, including unpredictable foreign policy, stricter immigration policies, and potential friction in trade negotiations. While India possesses the diplomatic prowess to manage these challenges, the article highlights the potential for broader geopolitical instability and uncertainty under a Trump administration.
Source: US election results 2024: What a Trump Presidency means for India and the world