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The article explores the potential challenges to the US-India relationship if Donald Trump returns as President, focusing on his trade policies and their implications for India's economy and diplomatic relations. Despite a seemingly close personal relationship between Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the article highlights areas of potential conflict, particularly in the realm of trade and immigration.
Trump's 'America First' agenda, characterized by its protectionist stance and emphasis on bringing jobs back to the US, could significantly impact India. Trump's aggressive trade policies during his first term, including the imposition of tariffs on countries with trade surpluses with the US, are likely to be revisited. India, being a major trading partner with a substantial trade surplus, could be directly affected by such policies. These policies could potentially stymie key industries in India, hindering the country's economic growth and the 'Make in India' initiative, which aims to boost local manufacturing by attracting global businesses like Apple and tech giants.
While Trump and Modi have expressed a personal rapport, the article suggests that the warmth of their relationship may be tested by Trump's policies. The potential for trade conflicts could create friction and strain the diplomatic ties that have been fostered in recent years. Furthermore, Trump's stance on immigration, specifically his avowed policy to crack down on illegal immigration, could pose a significant challenge. Given the large number of Indian migrants in the US, both legal and illegal, Trump's policies could lead to mass deportations, potentially triggering a diplomatic crisis and generating negative publicity for both countries. This could further complicate the already complex relationship between the two nations.
Despite the potential for conflict, the article also acknowledges the benefits of a strong US-India relationship. The two countries have forged significant partnerships in areas like defence, technology, and semiconductor production. India is also a member of the US-led Quad alliance, a strategic partnership aimed at countering China's growing influence in the Asia-Pacific region. The article concludes by highlighting the uncertainty surrounding Trump's unpredictable approach to foreign policy, suggesting that his return could significantly alter the trajectory of US-India relations.
Source: How Donald Trump's 'America-First' Agenda Could Test US-India Ties