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The 2020 US presidential election presents a unique set of considerations for India, a nation deeply intertwined with the United States in a strategic partnership that spans trade, technology, security, and even human rights. While both candidates, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, have expressed their commitment to strengthening ties with India, their respective stances on key issues could have significant ramifications for the bilateral relationship.
India's primary concern with a potential Trump presidency lies in his likely continuation of restrictive trade and immigration policies. Trump previously revoked India's preferential trade status under the Generalized System of Preference (GSP) and has threatened tariffs against India, labeling it a 'tariff abuser.' While Harris is anticipated to take a more nuanced approach to trade, her potential presidency still presents the risk of continued higher tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. In the realm of immigration, any revival of the stringent H1B regulations championed by Trump, such as increased wage requirements for foreign workers, could have a detrimental impact on the Indian IT sector.
On the other hand, India's relationship with the US is undeniably bolstered by the shared objective of countering China's growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region. Both Trump and Harris have acknowledged the strategic importance of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), a partnership that has seen significant momentum under Trump's administration. With the Quad, India and its partners—the US, Japan, and Australia—are committed to fostering cooperation in maritime security, technology, and infrastructure development. This strategic convergence on China is likely to remain a cornerstone of the Indo-US relationship regardless of who occupies the White House.
In the realm of technology, India's primary concern is the continuation of the landmark iCET initiative, launched by President Biden and Prime Minister Modi. The iCET framework facilitates collaboration in critical and emerging technologies, such as defense, artificial intelligence, and quantum computing. This initiative is crucial for India's economic growth and security, as access to cutting-edge technologies is vital for its development. While the US under Trump has demonstrated a willingness to collaborate on defense technology with India, it remains to be seen if he would be willing to share sensitive, dual-use technologies that could potentially enhance India's capabilities vis-Ã -vis China.
Beyond trade, technology, and security, the issue of human rights has emerged as a potential point of contention in the Indo-US relationship. Harris, known for her vocal stance on human rights, could raise concerns about democratic backsliding and religious freedom in India. While these issues may not be a deal-breaker for the relationship, they could complicate future discussions and potentially hinder progress on other fronts. Trump, however, is less likely to prioritize these issues, potentially alleviating some political pressure on India. However, the US government's ongoing investigation into the 'murder-for-hire' case against an Indian diplomat underscores the potential for human rights issues to become a persistent irritant in the bilateral relationship.
In conclusion, the 2020 US presidential election holds considerable significance for India. While a Trump presidency might offer some advantages in terms of security cooperation and technology transfer, his trade and immigration policies could negatively impact India's economic interests. A Harris presidency, while likely to prioritize human rights concerns, could also offer a more nuanced approach to trade and potentially enhance India's role in regional security through continued support for the Quad. India will need to carefully navigate the potential complexities of each candidate's approach to ensure that the strategic partnership with the US continues to thrive and serve its national interests.
Source: Donald Trump vs Kamala Harris: What’s in it for India