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The recent by-elections in West Bengal have delivered a resounding victory for the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC), significantly increasing its winning margins compared to previous elections. This outcome is particularly noteworthy given the recent controversies surrounding the state government, including the R G Kar rape-murder case and accusations of corruption. The TMC's victory, however, suggests that these controversies have not significantly impacted public opinion, at least not enough to sway voters away from the party. The scale of the TMC's win, with margins soaring in all six contested seats, points to a strong hold on the electorate and raises questions about the effectiveness of the opposition's campaign strategies.
In Sitai, the TMC's winning margin jumped dramatically from 10,112 votes in the 2021 Assembly elections to 29,000 in the Lok Sabha elections earlier this year, and finally to an astounding 1,30,156 votes in the recent bypoll. Similar trends were observed across other constituencies. This substantial increase in vote share is attributed by TMC leaders to the party's ‘pro-people’ policies and effective organization. Jayprakash Majumdar, the TMC's state vice president and spokesperson, highlighted the two-way street of political engagement, emphasizing the importance of both strong leadership and public trust. He also pointed to the government's swift response to the R G Kar case as a factor that helped maintain public confidence in Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee's leadership, particularly in the urban constituencies of Naihati and Medinipur.
The opposition BJP, however, offers a different interpretation of the results. Dilip Ghosh, a BJP national vice president, attributed the TMC's success to alleged manipulation of the electoral process, claiming the party employs “goons” and receives undue support from the police and administration. He acknowledged the need for introspection and strategizing for the upcoming 2026 Assembly elections, particularly given the unexpected loss in Madarihat, a seat they previously held. This highlights a significant divergence in narratives surrounding the by-election outcomes, with the ruling party highlighting its successes and the opposition focusing on alleged irregularities.
A detailed examination of the results reveals substantial increases in the TMC's winning margins across different regions of West Bengal. In Naihati, the margin doubled compared to 2021; in Haroa, the margin significantly increased; and similarly substantial gains were seen in Taldangra and Medinipur. These results suggest a consistent trend across different demographics and geographic locations, reinforcing the TMC’s overall dominance. The significant increase in the TMC's vote share across these diverse constituencies underscores the challenge facing the BJP in regaining ground in the state. The sheer magnitude of the TMC's victory necessitates a serious review of the BJP's strategy, campaign messaging, and ground-level organization.
The by-election results serve as a crucial barometer for the political climate in West Bengal ahead of the 2026 Assembly elections. The TMC’s dominant performance signals a continued strong hold on power, while the BJP’s losses indicate a need for a fundamental reassessment of their strategies. The allegations of irregularities, coupled with the TMC's own explanation focusing on its policies and public trust, frame the debate surrounding the elections. Understanding the underlying reasons for these outcomes requires deeper analysis beyond the raw numbers, examining factors such as local issues, campaign effectiveness, and the role of media and social narratives in shaping public opinion. The future of West Bengal's political landscape will undoubtedly be shaped by the responses and adaptations of both the ruling party and the opposition in the coming years.
Source: Trinamool’s victory margin soars, party credits ‘pro-people’ policies