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The recent reported launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) by Russia against Ukraine marks a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict. This event is unprecedented, representing the first ever combat deployment of an ICBM in the nearly six decades since its inception. Furthermore, the use of Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicles (MIRV) technology, also for the first time in combat, signifies a new and alarming level of sophistication in Russia's military strategy. The reported target was critical infrastructure in Dnipro, Ukraine, highlighting the potential for widespread destruction inherent in this technology.
The RS-26 Rubezh, the ICBM allegedly used in the attack, possesses a range exceeding 5,500 kilometers and is capable of carrying nuclear, chemical, and biological warheads. However, in this instance, Russia reportedly used a conventional warhead. The launch originated from the Astrakhan region of Russia, over 1,000 kilometers from the target, underscoring the significant range and destructive potential of this weapon system. While Russia has officially denied involvement, videos circulating on social media platforms appear to corroborate the use of multiple warheads re-entering the atmosphere over Ukraine. This alleged attack occurred just one day after President Putin signed amendments to Russia's nuclear doctrine.
The revised nuclear doctrine stipulates that an attack on Russia by a non-nuclear state supported by a nuclear power will be considered a joint attack, triggering a potentially devastating response. This shift in doctrine, coupled with the use of ICBMs, significantly raises the stakes of the conflict and introduces a new layer of complexity to international relations. The recent US decision to provide Ukraine with long-range ATACMS missiles, capable of striking deep into Russian territory, may have served as a catalyst for this dramatic escalation. The potential for a wider conflict, involving nuclear powers, now seems far more tangible than before. Understanding the implications of this unprecedented event requires a thorough analysis of the weapon systems involved, the geopolitical context, and the potential for future escalation.
The RS-26 Rubezh ICBM is a solid-fueled missile, which offers several operational advantages over liquid-fueled counterparts. Solid-fuel missiles are ready for immediate launch, eliminating the time-consuming fueling process required for liquid-fueled systems. This enhanced readiness enhances their strategic value. The solid propellant, a mixture of fuel and oxidizer bound by a rubbery material, ignites upon launch, producing substantial thrust for lift-off. The missile follows a parabolic trajectory, characterized by distinct boost, mid-course, and terminal stages. The apogee, or highest point, for ICBMs such as the Rubezh is well over 4,000 kilometers, making interception exceedingly challenging.
The MIRV technology utilized in the Rubezh allows the deployment of multiple warheads from a single missile, each capable of striking separate targets hundreds, even thousands of kilometers apart. This capability significantly complicates any attempt at interception. Anti-ballistic missile (ABM) systems must engage each warhead individually, increasing the complexity and decreasing the likelihood of success. The use of MIRV technology increases the destructive potential of ICBMs exponentially, making them a formidable weapon in any military arsenal. The development of MIRV technology is not exclusive to Russia. The United States was the pioneer in this technology, deploying MIRVed ICBMs and SLBMs in the early 1970s.
The Soviet Union quickly followed suit, leading to an arms race that significantly heightened global tensions during the Cold War. However, the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty of 1987 temporarily eased these tensions, mandating the elimination of intermediate-range missiles. Although this treaty was ultimately scrapped in 2019, its legacy serves as a reminder of the potential dangers of unchecked proliferation of advanced weaponry. The recent successful test of India's Agni-5 ICBM, equipped with MIRV technology, underscores the continuing global interest in and development of this technology. While this test marks a significant technological achievement for India, it also highlights the growing risk of an increasingly complex and dangerous global security landscape.
The use of ICBMs in the Ukraine conflict represents a profound shift in the nature of the war. The potential for escalation, the implications for international security, and the long-term consequences of this unprecedented event are significant. The incident raises serious concerns about the potential for an even wider conflict and underscores the urgent need for de-escalation efforts. The international community must address this challenge with diplomacy and a commitment to peaceful conflict resolution. Failure to do so could have catastrophic consequences.
Source: Russia's Firing Of ICBM On Ukraine Is Weapon's 1st Combat Use In History