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The upcoming Maharashtra Assembly elections scheduled for November 20, 2024, are shaping up to be a closely contested battle between the ruling coalition, Mahayuti, and the opposition alliance, Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). An opinion poll conducted by survey agency Matrize, based on responses from over 109,000 participants between October 10 and November 9, predicts a significant lead for the Mahayuti, indicating a potential return to power for the incumbent coalition.
The Matrize poll forecasts that the Mahayuti, composed of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and other allied parties, could secure between 145 and 165 seats in the 288-member Assembly. In contrast, the MVA, comprising the Shiv Sena (UBT), Congress, and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), is projected to win approximately 106 to 126 seats. This prediction suggests a substantial victory for the Mahayuti, potentially securing a comfortable majority in the state assembly.
The poll also highlights a clear advantage in voter support for the Mahayuti, with an anticipated 47% of the vote share compared to 41% for the MVA. Smaller parties are expected to collectively garner around 12% of the votes. This significant lead in voter sentiment reinforces the poll's prediction of a Mahayuti victory.
Regionally, the survey indicates strong support for the BJP within the Mahayuti, particularly in Western Maharashtra (48%), Vidarbha (48%), and Thane-Konkan (52%). Conversely, the Congress-led MVA is anticipated to perform well in North Maharashtra and Marathwada, with estimated vote shares of 47% and 44%, respectively. This regional breakdown highlights the key areas of support for both coalitions.
The poll's projections have significant implications for the MVA, potentially signaling substantial challenges ahead. Following their successful performance in the recent Lok Sabha elections, where they claimed 31 of the 48 seats in Maharashtra while the NDA secured only 17 seats, a loss in the Assembly elections could represent a setback for the coalition. This potential shift in political fortunes raises questions about the MVA's ability to maintain its momentum.
The BJP-led Mahayuti appears to have gained momentum following a successful campaign in Haryana. This resurgence is attributed to a reinvigorated base and an adjusted strategy for the upcoming elections. This shift in momentum has potentially bolstered the Mahayuti's chances of securing a victory in Maharashtra.
Meanwhile, the MVA faces internal challenges regarding seat-sharing agreements and the selection of a chief ministerial candidate. Despite these internal hurdles, the coalition has expressed confidence in its ability to secure a victory. However, the poll's predictions suggest that overcoming these internal challenges may be crucial for the MVA's success.
The BJP is actively campaigning with the slogan 'Ek hain toh safe hain' (Together, we are safe), championed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. This phrase serves as a pointed critique of the Congress party, which is accused of fostering divisive politics among backward classes. This campaign strategy, aimed at highlighting the BJP's commitment to unity and stability, could influence voters in the upcoming elections.
Maharashtra is set to hold its elections in a single phase on November 20, 2024, with the election results and vote counting scheduled for three days later on November 23, 2024. The upcoming elections will determine the political landscape of Maharashtra for the next five years, with the outcome potentially impacting the national political scene as well.