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The upcoming Maharashtra elections are shaping up to be a significant battleground for the BJP, with the party aiming to replicate its successful strategy from Haryana. This strategy involves building a strong coalition of various caste groups, shifting focus away from traditionally dominant castes. While successful in Haryana, the task is much more complex in Maharashtra due to its size, diversity, and a multitude of political players with limited ideological distinctions.
The BJP's success in Haryana hinged on securing the support of the Jat community, who constitute a significant portion of the population. In Maharashtra, the Maratha community, constituting around 28% of the population, holds considerable political influence. However, the presence of a substantial Muslim population, estimated at 11% and potentially increasing, adds another layer of complexity. The potential alliance between Marathas and Muslims, estimated at around 40% of the electorate, poses a formidable obstacle for the BJP's ambitions.
To counter this formidable bloc, the BJP seeks to create a broad coalition across various caste groups. The party's success relies heavily on securing the support of the Other Backward Classes (OBCs), who make up 38% of the population. Within this group, the Kunbis, Maalis, Vanjaris, and Dhangars hold significant weight. Additionally, the BJP needs to garner support from a significant portion of the Dalit community (12%) and a share of the upper caste population. While securing a substantial share of these groups would create a formidable base for the BJP, it will need to win over some Maratha and Dalit voters to secure a clear mandate.
To further enhance its prospects, the BJP is heavily emphasizing Hindutva in its campaign, employing a more aggressive approach than before. The party emphasizes broader Hindu unity, aiming to appeal to voters by highlighting the notion that economic stability and security depend on the collective strength of Hindus. In contrast, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), the opposition coalition, is focusing on issues of caste, reservation, and the constitution to counter the BJP's Hindutva strategy and prevent a similar consolidation of Hindu votes.
The BJP's success in attracting a share of the Maratha vote will depend on the effectiveness of its Hindutva campaign and its alliance with Ajit Pawar. Despite the intricate dynamics at play, the BJP is confident in its campaign strategy and will not rely heavily on alliance leaders. For the party, this election is not only about returning to power but also about maximizing its own seat tally.
Source: Maharashtra Polls: Doing A ‘Haryana’ With A Twist - News18