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The recent Maharashtra Assembly elections have resulted in a resounding victory for the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance, mirroring the situation five years prior but with significant differences. The alliance secured a landslide win, leading in 221 out of 288 seats, a stark contrast to the Maha Vikas Aghadi's lagging 56 seats. This victory marks a strong comeback for the BJP after their setback in the Lok Sabha polls. The BJP's strong performance, leading in 124 out of 148 contested seats, was bolstered by its allies, Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar's NCP, who significantly outperformed their rival factions led by Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar respectively. This election served as a crucial battle for the identity of the 'real' Shiv Sena and NCP, a narrative that played a pivotal role in shaping voter sentiment.
The significant win, however, has introduced a familiar complication: the question of who will become the next Chief Minister. The BJP, being the largest party in the alliance, is expected to push for the position, with Devendra Fadnavis being the most likely candidate. However, Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena is likely to contest this, arguing that Shinde's leadership and the government's policies were instrumental in securing the substantial mandate. This mirrors the situation in 2019, where a similar power struggle emerged after the BJP and Shiv Sena's victory. In 2019, the BJP, despite winning more seats, relinquished the Chief Minister's post, a gesture of goodwill that may not be repeated given their current commanding position. The addition of Ajit Pawar's NCP faction adds another layer of complexity to negotiations, potentially making the BJP's decision more strategic. The alliance's success has created an environment where hard bargaining over ministerial positions is anticipated.
The parallels between the 2019 and 2024 post-election scenarios are striking. In 2019, the BJP's 122 seats and Shiv Sena's 63 led to disagreements over the Chief Minister's post. Uddhav Thackeray's claims of a rotational Chief Ministership were denied by the BJP, ultimately leading to the collapse of the alliance. This time, the BJP and Eknath Shinde find themselves in a position similar to the BJP and Uddhav Thackeray in 2019. However, a crucial difference lies in the presence of Ajit Pawar's NCP faction, providing the BJP with more flexibility in negotiations. The BJP now requires the support of only one of its two allies to reach the required majority, giving Shinde's Sena significant bargaining power. Shinde's cautious response to the Chief Minister question, highlighting Prime Minister Modi's seniority, suggests a willingness to negotiate but also an awareness of the strategic leverage he possesses.
The election also delivered a major blow to the Congress-led INDIA alliance, which had performed significantly better in the previous Lok Sabha elections. The Maha Vikas Aghadi, consisting of the Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT), and NCP (Sharad Pawar), secured a considerably smaller number of seats than anticipated. This represents a significant setback for Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar, who are already grappling with the fallout from internal party splits. The breakaway factions' superior performance underscores the identity crisis facing both leaders. The Congress, despite its strong showing in the Lok Sabha polls, will likely face criticism for its performance in the Assembly elections, potentially being blamed for the alliance's poor showing. Overall, the Maharashtra election results have reshaped the state's political landscape, creating a complex scenario with high stakes negotiations ahead regarding the Chief Minister's post and ministerial appointments.
Source: Eknath Shinde Now Where Uddhav Thackeray Was In '19, With A Big Difference