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The upcoming Maharashtra Assembly elections in 2024 are shaping up to be a highly contested and significant event in Indian politics. The state's political landscape has undergone a dramatic transformation since the last elections in 2019, marked by significant party splits and realignments. The initial bipolar contest between the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance and the Congress-NCP alliance has fractured into a more complex multi-party scenario. This shift is largely due to the unprecedented internal conflicts within both the Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP).
The BJP's long-standing alliance with the Shiv Sena ended acrimoniously, culminating in a major split within the Shiv Sena. Eknath Shinde led a rebellion against Uddhav Thackeray, the then-Chief Minister, ultimately leading to Thackeray's resignation and Shinde's ascension to the Chief Minister's post with the support of the BJP. The Election Commission later recognized Shinde's faction as the legitimate Shiv Sena, leaving Uddhav Thackeray's faction to operate under a new name and symbol. This split significantly altered the power dynamics within the state, setting the stage for the current electoral contest.
The NCP also experienced a similar upheaval when Ajit Pawar, nephew of Sharad Pawar, rebelled against the party's founder and launched his own faction. Similar to the Shiv Sena split, the Election Commission recognized Ajit Pawar's faction as the official NCP, forcing Sharad Pawar's faction to rebrand. This internal conflict further fragmented the opposition, strengthening the BJP-led Mahayuti's position.
The current electoral landscape sees a clear division between two major alliances. The BJP-led Mahayuti alliance comprises the BJP, Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena faction, and Ajit Pawar's NCP faction. This alliance is expected to be a formidable force, leveraging the combined strength and resources of its constituent parties. Opposing them is the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance, a re-formed coalition of the Congress, Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena (UBT), and Sharad Pawar's NCP (SP). While this alliance aims to present a united front against the Mahayuti, the internal divisions within its constituent parties may pose a challenge to their campaign efficacy.
The seat-sharing dynamics between the alliances reflect the relative strength and influence of each party. The BJP is contesting the highest number of seats, reflecting its dominant position within the Mahayuti. Similarly, the Congress is contesting a significant number of seats, aiming to retain its influence in the state. The distribution of seats among the other parties in both alliances reflects their respective bargaining power and regional strongholds. The presence of smaller parties, such as Asaduddin Owaisi's AIMIM, also adds another layer of complexity to the electoral equation.
The number of candidates contesting the election has risen significantly compared to the 2019 polls, indicating an increase in political activity and the emergence of several rebel candidates. This signifies heightened competition and a broader participation of political aspirants. A substantial portion of the increased number of candidates stems from rebel candidates within both the Mahayuti and MVA alliances, suggesting internal conflicts and dissatisfaction within the parties themselves. These rebel candidates could potentially influence the outcome by splitting the vote.
The voter count in Maharashtra has also increased significantly due to special enrollment drives aimed at registering young and first-time voters. This surge in voter numbers indicates a greater level of engagement and a broader participation of young citizens in the democratic process. The increase in polling booths reflects the efforts to ensure smooth voting for the expanded electorate. The inclusion of provisions for elderly and differently-abled voters further demonstrates the efforts to make the electoral process more accessible to all.
The upcoming elections are scheduled for November 20, 2024, with voting occurring from 7 AM to 6 PM. Exit polls, which provide predictions based on voter surveys conducted immediately after voting, will be released after 6:30 PM on the same day, subject to Election Commission guidelines. The counting of votes and announcement of results are scheduled for November 23, 2024. The results will have profound implications not only for the governance of Maharashtra but also for the broader political landscape of India, especially considering the national implications of the election results and their impact on future political strategies and alliances across the nation. The outcome will profoundly impact the political trajectory of the state and potentially influence national political narratives in the lead-up to the next general elections.
The intense campaigning witnessed in the run-up to the elections highlights the stakes involved. Significant resources were deployed by parties, leading to substantial seizures of cash, liquor, and other illicit items meant to influence voters. This indicates the high level of competition and the potential for unethical practices. The Election Commission played a significant role in enforcing the model code of conduct and taking action against violations, attempting to maintain a level playing field for all participants.
The 2024 Maharashtra Assembly elections are a crucial test of the alliances formed in the aftermath of the significant internal party splits and defections witnessed in recent years. The results will be closely watched both nationally and internationally, as they will shape the political landscape of the state and possibly influence the larger national political dynamic. The outcome of the election will heavily depend on several factors, including the success of the campaign strategies of both alliances, the effectiveness of their respective mobilization efforts, and voter perceptions of the candidates and their parties. The increased number of candidates and the significant number of rebel candidates could lead to unpredictable results, making this election even more intriguing and challenging to forecast.
Source: Maharashtra Assembly Election 2024: Check polling date, time, exit polls, result counting details