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The recent by-elections in Kerala witnessed significant victories for both the Congress and the Communist Party of India (Marxist), or CPM. Priyanka Gandhi Vadra secured a resounding win in the Wayanad Lok Sabha constituency, marking her first electoral triumph. Her victory margin surpassed that of her brother, Rahul Gandhi, in the previous election, despite a slight dip in voter turnout. This win highlights the continued influence of the Gandhi family in Indian politics and demonstrates the strength of Congress's support base in the region. The high percentage of votes secured by Priyanka (65%) underscores the effectiveness of the Congress campaign, likely leveraging her charisma and the established relationship her brother had cultivated in Wayanad. The strategy of portraying Priyanka as a successor to the legacy of Indira Gandhi undoubtedly played a crucial role in garnering significant support from the electorate.
The analysis of the voting patterns in Wayanad reveals an interesting dynamic. With Muslims comprising 41% and Christians 13% of the voters, the expected support for the Congress was apparent. However, the failure to reach Rahul Gandhi’s 2019 record margin (4.31 lakh votes) indicates that despite a strong showing, certain factors might have prevented a complete consolidation of votes. While the UDF (United Democratic Front) aimed for a larger margin (5 lakh votes), the results show that while they won decisively, the potential for complete mobilization of their traditional vote bank still existed, opening up the possibility of future strategic adjustments by both the Congress and its rivals.
The Palakkad Assembly by-election, a contest characterized by aggressive campaigning and controversies, witnessed the retention of the seat by the Congress candidate, Rahul Mamkoottathil. His victory, secured by a margin of 18,840 votes, represents a significant blow to the BJP, which had anticipated better results, particularly given its runner-up status since 2016. The intense rivalry between Congress and CPM, marked by mutual accusations of alliances with the BJP to secure minority votes, added a layer of complexity to the contest. This exchange of accusations highlights the strategic maneuvering and the sensitivity around minority votes in the region. The BJP's attempt to consolidate Hindu and Christian votes by highlighting the Waqf land row proved unsuccessful, as their vote share (28.63%) fell short of their 2021 performance (35.34%). This decline suggests a failure to effectively capitalize on their chosen campaign strategy.
Interestingly, the LDF-backed independent candidate, Dr. P Sarin, a Congress rebel, garnered 27% of the votes, slightly higher than the CPM's 2021 share. This indicates a certain degree of vote fragmentation within the opposition bloc and a potential for future realignment of political forces in Palakkad. The strategic move by the CPM to publish anti-minority remarks of a BJP leader who had recently joined the Congress suggests an attempt to manipulate the minority vote bank. This action further highlights the highly competitive and sometimes contentious nature of the political landscape in Kerala. Despite this, the Congress-led UDF benefited from minority consolidation, demonstrating the ongoing importance of this demographic in the state’s political equation.
The CPM's victory in the Chelakkara Assembly seat offers a significant boost to the ruling party. Their win, securing a 12,200-vote margin over the Congress candidate, former MP Ramya Haridas, negates the perception of growing anti-incumbency against the eight-year-old Pinarayi Vijayan government. This result has crucial implications for the upcoming Assembly elections in 2026, providing a much-needed morale boost for the CPM and reinforcing their narrative of continued popularity. The analysis presented by the CPM state secretary, M V Govindan, emphasizes the absence of any significant anti-incumbency factor and predicts a third term for the LDF government. This interpretation is disputed by Congress leader V D Satheesan, who highlights the reduction in the CPM’s margin in Chelakkara and Congress’s increased margin in Palakkad as indicators of their own success. This disagreement underscores the divergent interpretations of election results and the ongoing political battles in Kerala.
In conclusion, the Kerala by-elections presented a mixed bag of results, with both the Congress and CPM achieving notable successes. The outcomes offer critical insights into the current political dynamics in the state, highlighting the continuing importance of traditional vote banks, the impact of strategic maneuvering, and the ongoing battle for dominance between the two major political forces. The results also have implications for the upcoming Assembly elections, with both parties using these results to bolster their respective narratives about the electoral landscape of Kerala. The future political trajectory of Kerala will undoubtedly be influenced by the strategic responses of the various political parties in light of these by-election results.
Source: Wayanad sends Priyanka to LS; Congress retains Palakkad, CPM Chelakkara