 |
|
C. Raja Mohan's insightful analysis underscores the potential challenges and opportunities that India faces in navigating the complexities of President Donald Trump's second term. While a positive rapport exists between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Trump, the article highlights the need for Delhi to engage with the radical nature of Trump's policy framework, which seeks to reshape the global order and America's role within it.
Mohan identifies five key areas where Trump's vision might significantly impact India. Firstly, Trump's plan to dismantle the regulatory state and facilitate the growth of US techno-capitalism could pressure India to re-evaluate its state-led technology governance model. This necessitates boosting the Indian private technology sector and fostering deeper collaboration with US tech giants to maintain a competitive edge. Secondly, Trump's emphasis on re-industrializing America through tariffs could strain India's trade relationship with the US, especially considering the latter's position as India's most important commercial partner.
Thirdly, Trump's stance on immigration, while seemingly targeting illegal immigration, acknowledges the need for skilled labor, including from India. This presents an opportunity for India to address the H-1B visa framework and forge a more sustainable connection between its technical talent and the US's technological aspirations. Fourthly, the article explores the potential implications of Trump's China and Russia policy. While the Quadrilateral framework, aimed at limiting China's influence, is likely to remain active, American strategists' impatience with India's reluctance to strengthen the Quad as a security coalition could become a point of contention.
Finally, Trump's potential desire to end the war in Ukraine and negotiate a deal with Russia could alleviate some of the pressures India has faced in isolating Russia. This scenario could open doors for India to actively contribute to peace in Ukraine and deepen its security partnerships with European powers. The article concludes by emphasizing the transactional nature of Trump's approach, where favors are not one-sided but demand reciprocity. India will need to proactively seek a strategic bargain with the US, understanding that 'giving something' might be necessary to 'get something' under Trump's second term.
The article effectively highlights the need for India to be proactive and flexible in its engagement with the US under Trump's second term. It cautions against complacency and emphasizes the importance of carefully navigating the complex geopolitical landscape, balancing its strategic interests with the potential for significant trade and security implications.