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The recent meeting between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping, their first formal bilateral in five years, marks a crucial moment amidst ongoing tensions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). While the leaders’ agreement to resolve the military standoff offers a glimmer of hope, it prompts deeper reflection on the evolution of India-China relations and its broader implications. This relationship, historically marked by a volatile mix of cooperation and conflict, has shaped not only their individual development paths but also regional and global peace and stability.
The early 1950s saw a period of camaraderie between India and China, epitomized by the slogan “Indo-Chini Bhai Bhai” (India and China are brothers). This spirit of cooperation, fueled by shared aspirations of newly independent nations navigating the Cold War, culminated in the 1954 Panchsheel Agreement, emphasizing mutual respect for sovereignty, non-aggression, and peaceful coexistence. However, this phase proved short-lived. By 1962, unresolved border disputes had escalated into a full-scale war, shattering the illusion of brotherhood and leaving behind long-lasting animosities. The war, particularly centered around the contested territories of Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh, cast a shadow over subsequent decades of diplomatic engagement, solidifying the border issue as a constant point of tension.
For much of the 20th century, India and China maintained a tenuous relationship characterized by sporadic efforts at reconciliation interspersed with periods of mistrust. The 1990s witnessed a thaw, with both countries embarking on economic reforms and recognizing the potential benefits of cooperation. Bilateral trade flourished, and both nations took steps to improve border management, culminating in agreements like the 1993 Border Peace and Tranquillity Agreement. Nevertheless, the underlying border dispute never truly went away. Military standoffs and skirmishes continued periodically, with each side accusing the other of provocations along the LAC. Despite these tensions, the overall diplomatic narrative was one of cautious engagement, as both nations recognized the strategic and economic importance of maintaining a stable relationship.
The 2017 Doklam standoff, a 73-day confrontation triggered by China’s attempt to build a road on disputed territory near the India-Bhutan-China tri-junction, marked a turning point in India-China relations. This standoff brought the two nations dangerously close to military conflict, underscoring the fragility of peace along the LAC and highlighting the potential for minor disputes to escalate into major confrontations. While diplomatic negotiations eventually defused the crisis, Doklam served as a harbinger of the more severe tensions that would emerge in 2019 and 2020.
Doklam marked the beginning of a more assertive phase in India-China relations, with both sides ramping up their military presence and infrastructure development along the LAC. China’s attempt to assert its power more assertively in South Asia and the Indian Ocean region further fueled tensions. In 2019, India’s decision to abrogate Article 370, revoking Jammu and Kashmir’s special status, intensified these tensions, particularly concerning Ladakh, which borders Chinese-controlled Aksai Chin. Beijing’s opposition to this move led to heightened confrontations along the LAC, with Indian and Chinese troops facing off in key areas like Pangong Tso, Galwan Valley, and Hot Springs.
The tensions reached a peak in June 2020 with the deadly Galwan Valley clash, where hand-to-hand combat resulted in the deaths of 20 Indian soldiers—the first such fatalities since 1975. This incident sent shockwaves through bilateral relations and fuelled nationalist sentiments in both nations. In response, India reduced its economic dependence on China, banning Chinese apps and scrutinizing Chinese investments.
The infrastructure buildup on both sides has been a key driver of LAC tensions. India has accelerated road and military infrastructure development in Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh in response to perceived Chinese encroachments. China, in turn, has built roads, airstrips, and military installations in Tibet and Xinjiang, aiming to consolidate its hold over Aksai Chin and extend its influence into South Asia. This infrastructure race has intensified the strategic rivalry. For India, improved connectivity in border regions is crucial for asserting territorial claims and enhancing its ability to counter Chinese incursions. For China, infrastructure serves both strategic and economic goals, strengthening its control over contested areas while promoting the integration of Tibet and Xinjiang into its broader economy.
In recent years, India and China have held multiple military and diplomatic talks to ease LAC tensions. In February 2021, both sides agreed to disengage in areas near Pangong Tso, with further discussions addressing unresolved issues in the Depsang Plains and Gogra-Hot Springs. However, tensions remain, as evidenced by a clash in December 2022 in Arunachal Pradesh’s Tawang sector, underscoring the ongoing volatility and the lack of full disengagement. The recent Modi-Xi meeting, signaling a shared commitment to resolving the military standoff and stabilizing relations, offers a glimmer of hope. Modi emphasized the importance of the relationship for both nations and for global peace.
India-China relations must be understood in the context of a rapidly shifting global order. Both nations are central to an emerging multipolar world, where regional dynamics and global governance are in flux. For India, its relationship with China is part of a broader strategy to assert its influence in Asia and globally, as seen through its participation in the Quad and strengthening ties with the US to balance China’s presence in the Indo-Pacific. Meanwhile, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and assertiveness in South Asia and the Indian Ocean raise concerns about its strategic intentions.
The India-China rivalry extends beyond border disputes to competing visions for regional and global leadership. While the Modi-Xi meeting signals progress toward resolving LAC tensions, the greater challenge lies in managing their strategic rivalry without escalating tensions further. Historically, cooperation between the two has often given way to conflict. Moving forward, both countries must manage their differences while acknowledging the broader implications of their relationship, which impacts not only their development goals but also regional and global peace.
Source: Why India and China need lasting peace beyond mere de-escalation