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The World Test Championship (WTC) 2023-25 cycle is entering a crucial phase, with the race for the top two spots intensifying. India, currently holding the top position, finds themselves in a precarious situation following their defeats in Bengaluru and Pune. New Zealand's resurgence, fueled by their historic series win in India, has thrown the competition wide open, placing five teams in contention for the coveted final spot at Lord's.
India's fate remains in their own hands, but they need to win at least four of their remaining six Tests to secure a top-two finish without relying on other results. A 3-3 record in the remaining games would leave them vulnerable, potentially surpassed by Australia, Sri Lanka, South Africa, or New Zealand. Meanwhile, New Zealand's impressive comeback following their loss in Sri Lanka has catapulted them to the fourth position. A perfect 4-0 run in their remaining four Tests would give them a strong chance, but it's not guaranteed. Their fate hinges on other teams' results, particularly the South Africa vs. Sri Lanka series.
South Africa, currently in fifth place, is also in the mix with a strong chance of making the final. Winning all five of their remaining matches would secure their position, while four wins would leave them in contention depending on other results. Sri Lanka, with their recent resurgence, has become a serious contender. Seven consecutive wins would guarantee them a top-two finish, and even three wins would leave them in a good position. Australia, currently in second place, will face stiff competition from India and Sri Lanka in their remaining matches. Five wins out of seven would be enough for them to secure a final spot, but anything less would leave them reliant on other results.
Pakistan, despite their recent 2-1 series win against England, faces a challenging uphill battle. Despite a late resurgence, their poor start to the cycle makes it difficult to catch up. They would need a string of wins and favorable results from other teams to even have an outside chance of making the final. The final WTC standings could be significantly influenced by slow over-rate penalties, which could result in points deductions for teams, potentially altering their final positions.
The race for the WTC final is poised to be a thrilling and unpredictable affair. With several teams in contention and the remaining matches offering high stakes, the competition is guaranteed to be intense and captivating for cricket fans worldwide.
Source: WTC scenarios: India cede sure footing; Resurgent NZ make their way up