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The recent Assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) have marked a significant shift in the political landscape of the region, with the National Conference (NC) emerging victorious and forming a government in alliance with the Congress. The rise of the NC comes at the cost of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the Congress, both of which have witnessed a substantial decline in their electoral fortunes.
The NC's victory is a testament to its steady growth over the past two Lok Sabha elections. Since dropping to 15 seats in the 2014 Assembly polls, the NC has consistently gained ground, securing 30 Assembly segments in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls and further increasing its lead to 34 segments in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. In the recent Assembly elections, the NC's momentum continued, securing 42 seats.
The decline of the Congress and the PDP has been equally pronounced. The Congress, which won 12 seats in the 2014 Assembly polls, has seen its seat count dwindle to just six in the recent Assembly elections. Similarly, the PDP, which was in power from 2014 to 2018, has gone from winning 28 Assembly seats in 2014 to securing only five segments in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls and ending with a meager eight seats in the Assembly elections.
The BJP, though performing well and securing the position of principal opposition with 29 seats, remains confined to the Jammu division. While the BJP's performance has been strong, its vote share in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls (24.36%) was lower than in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls (46.68%), suggesting a potential shift in the BJP's electoral support base.
The rise of the NC, alongside the decline of the Congress and the PDP, indicates a changing political dynamic in J&K. The NC's focus on regionalism and its commitment to development seem to have resonated with the voters. The Congress and the PDP, on the other hand, appear to have lost ground due to a combination of factors including perceived ineffectiveness and a lack of a clear message to the electorate. The BJP's success in the Jammu division points to the party's ability to tap into regional sentiments and garner support from a specific section of the electorate.
Source: As NC strides to power, Congress, PDP plummet in J-K, the signs were there