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The Middle East, a region historically marked by volatility, finds itself on the brink of a wider conflict as the war between Israel and Hamas, which began in October 2023, escalates. This conflict has pulled in an expanding network of countries and militias, stretching from Lebanon to Iran, pushing the region closer to a full-blown war. A series of escalating tit-for-tat attacks between Israel and Iran's allies in recent months has significantly broadened the scope of the conflict, potentially engulfing various regional power players, including Arab nations, and global superpowers like the United States.
The question of alliances and rivalries takes center stage in this escalating conflict. A recent demonstration of these alignments occurred in April when Iran launched a series of unprecedented missile strikes against Israel. Iran was joined by Houthi rebels in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon, while receiving support from the Syrian army. On the other side, Israel's defense was strengthened by its Western allies (the US, the UK, and France), along with its Arab neighbors, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.
Israel, aided by the United States and its renowned 'Iron Dome' defense system, is currently engaged in a multifaceted war. Since October 2023, Israel has been battling Hamas in the Gaza Strip, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Houthi rebels in Yemen. Israel has declared its intention to eliminate Hamas, while simultaneously issuing warnings of retaliation against Iran and Iran-backed militias in case of any attacks. While Israel boasts strong alliances with the US, UK, France, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia, it faces opposition from Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran, and the Houthis.
Iran, having previously relied on proxy forces to target Israel, has taken a more direct approach in recent months. In an unprecedented move, Iran launched two significant attacks on Israel. The first attack, on October 1st, involved the firing of 200 missiles at Israel in retaliation for the killing of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah and the assassination of top Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. The second attack occurred earlier in the year, where Iran launched 170 explosive-laden drones and 120 ballistic missiles towards Israel, following an attack on the Iranian embassy compound in Syria. Iran has been progressively mobilizing its allies across the region to strategically corner Israel. Its primary allies in this conflict include the 'Axis of Resistance' and Hamas. Iran faces direct rivalry with Israel, the United States, and Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Arabia, known for its robust security ties with Israel, has been navigating this conflict through a delicate diplomatic approach. While publicly condemning Israeli aggression and calling for an immediate ceasefire, Saudi Arabia has also shared intelligence with Israel about Iran's planned attacks in April. This dual approach has played out despite the fact that Saudi Arabia and Iran, the Middle East's primary Sunni and Shiite powerhouses, signed a deal in 2023 to re-establish diplomatic relations. The Saudi-Iranian reconciliation, however, does not seem to have impacted Saudi Arabia's strategic alliance with Israel, suggesting a complex and intricate web of relationships driving their actions.
Qatar, despite its relatively small size, has taken an active role in mediating the conflict between Israel and Hamas. In November 2023, Qatar played a key role in brokering a deal that secured the release of Israeli hostages held by Hamas. However, Qatar has also provided sanctuary to the late Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and maintains amicable relations with Iran, a stance that has drawn Israel's displeasure. Adding to the complexities of its position, Qatar is home to the largest US military facility in the region, showcasing a delicate balance of diplomatic priorities.
Jordan, like Saudi Arabia, has been caught in the crosshairs of this escalating conflict. In January 2024, a US Army base in Jordan was targeted by Iran-backed militias, resulting in the deaths of three American soldiers. Jordan has walked a cautious political line, sending aid to Gaza while also maintaining diplomatic ties with Israel, with whom it signed a peace treaty in 1994. In April, Jordan played a crucial role in intercepting missiles launched from Iran towards Israel, further demonstrating its precarious position within this regional conflict.
Egypt, a long-standing neighbor of Israel, has witnessed a significant strain in its relations since the signing of a historic peace treaty in 1979. While Egypt has refrained from explicitly supporting either side in the current conflict, its ties with Israel have been impacted since Israeli troops took control of the Rafah border crossing between Gaza and Egypt in May 2024. The situation escalated further when an Egyptian soldier was killed in a border shooting incident with Israeli forces on May 27th. Since then, Egypt has kept its side of the border closed, affecting economic ties between the two nations.
Syria and Iraq, once regional powerhouses, have become havens for Iran-backed militant groups. These groups have launched numerous attacks on US military targets within both countries. Iraqi armed groups have issued threats of attacks on US bases in Iraq if the US retaliates against Iranian strikes on Israel or if Israel utilizes Iraqi airspace in operations against Tehran, according to Reuters.
Turkey, under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has transitioned from a nation with close ties to Israel to a vocal critic. Since the outbreak of the Gaza war, Turkey has strengthened its ties with Hamas, providing medical treatment to injured Palestinians. Relations between Turkey and Israel reached a low point earlier this year when Ankara claimed to have apprehended 30 members of Israel's intelligence agency, Mossad.
Source: Iran-Israel conflict: Who's backing whom as Middle East stares at war