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The Lokniti programme of the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) conducted a comprehensive post-poll survey in Jammu and Kashmir following the 2024 elections. This research endeavor, spanning from September 19 to October 6, aimed to capture the nuances of voter sentiment and preferences within the region. The survey encompassed 25 Assembly Constituencies and 99 polling stations, reaching out to a total of 2,614 respondents. This comprehensive approach underscores the study's commitment to providing insightful data on the electoral landscape of Jammu and Kashmir.
A meticulous multi-stage random sampling technique formed the foundation of this survey. The selection of Assembly Constituencies was carried out using the probability proportional to size method, ensuring that the chosen constituencies accurately reflected the regional distribution of voters. Within each sampled constituency, four polling stations were meticulously selected using the systematic random sampling method, further bolstering the representativeness of the chosen locations. Finally, 40 respondents were randomly chosen from the electoral rolls of the sampled polling stations using the systematic method, guaranteeing a diverse range of voices.
The survey questionnaire was carefully translated into Hindi and Urdu, catering to the linguistic diversity of the region. While the sample size, though robust, is relatively modest, it effectively represents the social composition of the J&K electorate. To address any potential under-representation of specific social groups, weights were strategically applied to the data. This meticulous approach ensured that the collected data accurately reflected the demographics of the voter population.
The fieldwork for this comprehensive survey was diligently coordinated by Aijaz Ashraf Wani in the Kashmir region and Ellora Puri in the Jammu region. Their expertise and dedication contributed significantly to the successful execution of the data collection process. The study was expertly directed by a trio of accomplished researchers: Sanjay Kumar, Suhas Palshikar, and Sandeep Shastri. Their collective experience and insights guided the research design and ensured the production of reliable and insightful findings.
The Lokniti-CSDS post-poll survey in Jammu and Kashmir serves as a valuable resource for understanding the political dynamics within the region. Its robust methodology, comprehensive sampling, and meticulous data analysis provide a rich tapestry of insights into voter preferences, electoral trends, and the overall political landscape. These findings are expected to play a crucial role in shaping future political discourse and informed decision-making within Jammu and Kashmir.
Source: Methodology of the Lokniti-CSDS post-poll survey in Jammu and Kashmir