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The upcoming Jharkhand Assembly elections are shaping up to be a fiercely contested battle between the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) bloc, led by the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM). Both sides are actively strategizing and finalizing their seat arrangements, with the NDA seeking a comeback and the INDIA bloc aiming to retain power.
The BJP-led NDA is hoping to leverage the anti-incumbency sentiment against the JMM-led INDIA government, highlighting unfulfilled promises and shortcomings. The NDA plans to capitalize on issues such as unemployment allowances for youth and stove expense allowances for women, which were promised but not fully implemented by the current government.
The INDIA bloc, on the other hand, seeks to capitalize on sympathy for Hemant Soren, the JMM leader who was recently arrested by the Enforcement Directorate. They are also banking on the success of the Maiyya Samman Yojana, a welfare scheme that provides income support to women. The INDIA bloc's strategy is centered around highlighting the welfare initiatives of the current government and appealing to the sentiment of a state with a large tribal population.
The 2024 Lok Sabha election results offer a recent glimpse into the political landscape, although they don't necessarily predict the outcome of the state assembly elections. The NDA was leading in 52 assembly segments, while the INDIA bloc was ahead in 29. While the NDA won nine of the 14 Lok Sabha seats in Jharkhand, they lost three seats compared to the 2019 elections, indicating a potential shift in voter sentiment. The INDIA bloc captured five Lok Sabha seats, sweeping all the ST-reserved seats.
The BJP's strength in national elections, often attributed to the 'Modi premium', appears to diminish at the state level. While the BJP enjoys support among upper castes, OBCs, and SCs, their performance in ST-reserved seats has historically been a weak point. The BJP's return to power in Jharkhand heavily relies on their ability to make inroads in the ST-reserved seats, a domain where the JMM-INC combine currently holds dominance.
The return of former Chief Minister Babulal Marandi to the BJP fold is seen as a significant boost. Marandi's JVM(P) secured three seats in the 2019 assembly elections, potentially impacting the BJP's chances in two seats. While Marandi's presence is expected to solidify the BJP's base, critics argue that he may not be able to bridge the gap in ST-reserved seats.
Sudesh Mahato's AJSU, now back in the NDA fold, holds significant influence among Kurmi voters. The party's return could benefit the BJP, but it faces competition from Jairam Mahato's Jharkhand Bhasha Khatiyani Sangharsh Samiti (JBKSS), which has been gaining traction among Kurmi voters. The JBKSS, focused on securing a 1932-based domicile policy in Jharkhand, could further fragment the Kurmi vote, potentially impacting both the BJP and the INDIA bloc.
Saryu Rai, a former BJP leader who won against the sitting Chief Minister in the 2019 elections, has joined the JDU. His presence is likely to boost the JDU's chances in the Jamshedpur area, where he enjoys significant support.
The BJP's strength has also been augmented by the entry of former Chief Minister Champai Soren, who joined the party after his unceremonious removal from the JMM. Champai hails from the Kolhan region, where the JMM held a strong position in the last elections. However, the Kurmi population in this region has expressed dissatisfaction with the JMM for their exclusion from the ST list, potentially creating an opportunity for the BJP, particularly with Champai's support.
The BJP has identified two key regions—Kolhan and Santhal Pargana—as crucial for their comeback bid. These regions, with a combined 32 seats, saw the JMM securing a strong majority in 2019. The BJP aims to bridge the gap by leveraging issues like infiltration in Santhal Pargana and promoting a tribal-versus-minorities narrative, hoping to appeal to the Sarna tribal community who have grievances against the JMM.
The INDIA bloc has strengthened with the inclusion of Left parties like CPI-ML and CPIM, who have significant influence in certain regions of the state. However, the INDIA bloc faces a challenge in addressing the social tension between Sarna tribals and Tribal Christians, a divide the BJP has been exploiting.
The BJP's opposition to the Sarna Code and recognition of Sarna as a separate religion, demands that the INDIA bloc has promised to fulfill, could complicate matters for the BJP in the upcoming elections. Ultimately, the outcome of the Jharkhand elections hinges on how effectively each alliance addresses the concerns and aspirations of different communities and successfully navigates the complex political landscape of the state.