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The upcoming Jammu and Kashmir assembly election results, scheduled for October 8th, 2024, mark a significant event in the region's political landscape. After more than six years, the Union Territory will finally have an elected government, following the collapse of the PDP-BJP coalition in June 2018. The election process, spanning three phases, took place amidst tight security and saw a voter turnout of 63.45 percent. Key political players, including the BJP, Congress, National Conference (NC), and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), participated in the race, with the BJP aiming for a majority and the NC-Congress alliance hoping to secure power.
Exit polls have offered insights into the potential outcomes, suggesting an advantage for the NC-Congress alliance over the BJP. CVoter's projection indicates the BJP securing 27-32 seats in Jammu and 0-1 in Kashmir, while the NC-Congress is expected to win 11-15 seats in Jammu and 29-33 in Kashmir. The PDP is predicted to secure 0-2 seats in Jammu and 6-10 in Kashmir. A party or alliance needs 46 seats to form the government, making the outcome uncertain. Key constituencies to watch include Gandebral, where Omar Abdullah of the NC is contesting against an Independent candidate, Bijbehara, with Iltija Mufti of the PDP as a candidate, Sopore, featuring Aijaz Ahmad Guroo, brother of Parliament attack convict Afzal Guru, contesting as an Independent, and Kupwara, where Sajad Lone from the People's Conference is competing.
The absence of an elected government in Jammu and Kashmir since 2018 has been a result of the BJP's decision to break its alliance with the PDP, leading to the dissolution of the Legislative Assembly and the imposition of President's Rule. The subsequent abrogation of Article 370 in 2019 and the bifurcation of the state into Union Territories further complicated the political scene. However, the Supreme Court's order in December 2023, upholding the abrogation of Article 370 while directing the Central government to hold elections by September 30, 2024, paved the way for the recent assembly elections. The formation of the new government will be a critical moment for Jammu and Kashmir. The new administration will face numerous challenges, with significant powers resting with the Lieutenant Governor. While the results are expected to address local representation concerns, the focus on basic issues like amenities, power supply, and infrastructure will be paramount. The outcome will also reveal whether the residents of Jammu and Kashmir align with the BJP's vision or prioritize local challenges. A strong BJP performance would support Modi's approach and reinforce his commitment, while a lackluster outcome could empower critics both domestically and internationally.
The elections in Jammu and Kashmir hold immense political and societal significance. The results will shape the region's future trajectory, potentially impacting national narratives and highlighting the challenges of governance in a post-Article 370 landscape. The focus on local issues, such as essential amenities and infrastructure, coupled with the concerns about representation and the balance of power between the elected government and the Lieutenant Governor, will be critical factors influencing the outcome and shaping the future of Jammu and Kashmir.