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The article, written by Lt Gen Arun Kumar Sahni and Jaideep Saikia, paints a stark picture of the mounting security threats facing India, arising from a confluence of volatile events in the country's northeastern region and its neighboring nations. The authors highlight the ‘ripple effect’ of the ongoing ethnic clashes in Manipur, the ongoing civil war in Myanmar, and the recent political shift in Bangladesh, as major threats to India's internal harmony and security. They argue that these events have the potential to undermine India's vision of a 'Viksit Bharat 2047', a prosperous and developed India by 2047, by creating a fertile ground for extremism, separatism, and terrorism.
The article pinpoints the ethnic strife in Manipur as a significant indicator of internal instability. The authors point to the compounding negative impact on India's security from the interplay of events in Manipur, Myanmar, and Bangladesh. The civil war in Myanmar, which has provided a safe haven for Indian insurgent groups, and the ascendancy of the Jamaat-e-Islami in Bangladesh, contribute to a dangerous confluence of factors. This situation, according to the authors, creates an ideal environment for inimical elements to exploit and exacerbate extremism, separatism, and terrorism within India.
The article further underscores the role of China in exacerbating the instability in India's northeast. The authors allege that China is exploiting the volatile situation to further fan internal dissonance, not only in Manipur but throughout the region. They claim that China, through its support for insurgent groups and its actions in the border region, seeks to destabilize India and hinder its strategic interests. The article emphasizes the need for India to adopt a proactive approach to address the threats emanating from Myanmar, particularly the influx of weapons and the presence of insurgent groups operating from its territory.
The article also focuses on the alarming developments in Bangladesh. The authors highlight the regime change, the rise of extremist rhetoric from the Jamaat, and the release of terrorists and criminals from custody, as concerning trends. They warn that the growing influence of Pakistani elements in Bangladesh poses a significant security threat to India, potentially leading to the resurgence of a proxy war. The authors express concerns about the infiltration of radical elements from Bangladesh along with migrants, urging for stringent scrutiny and effective handling of the situation.
In conclusion, the article presents a sobering analysis of the security challenges confronting India. It emphasizes the need for India to adopt a more proactive approach, transcending 'strategic patience' with 'strategic proactiveness' to address the threats emanating from the volatile regional environment. The authors call for a multi-pronged strategy involving diplomatic engagement, security measures, and counter-insurgency operations to safeguard India's security interests and ensure the realization of its national development aspirations.
Source: View: Red flagging threats to long term security interests