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The article analyzes the evolving dynamics between India and China, highlighting the significant shift in their relationship since 2020. It contrasts the response to the 2017 Doklam crisis with the current climate, emphasizing a heightened sense of caution and skepticism towards China within India. The author argues that the recent agreement between the two nations, while a positive step, does not signify a return to the pre-2020 status quo. China's actions in 2020 fundamentally altered India's perception, leading to a strengthening of its deterrence capabilities and a diversification of its strategic partnerships.
The article delves into the reasons behind China's current outreach to India, attributing it to a combination of factors: strategic and economic pressures, concerns about domestic stability, and uncertainty regarding the US's future approach. The author posits that China's engagement with India, Australia, and European countries reflects a pattern of dividing potential allies to weaken balancing coalitions. India, meanwhile, has not remained static. It has significantly strengthened its military posture, bolstering troops, equipment, and infrastructure along the border. This, in part, stems from a lack of trust that agreements will effectively deter Chinese aggression.
The author highlights the profound change in India's perception of China, transforming from a potential contributor to a constraint in achieving Indian objectives. Economic ties, once seen as an opportunity, are now considered a vulnerability. India has also transitioned from viewing China as a partner in global influence to seeing it as a primary competitor. Moreover, the article underscores the deepening of India's partnerships with like-minded countries, driven by shared concerns over China's assertiveness. This has fostered closer collaboration between India and the US in various domains, including defense, technology, economic security, and multilateral platforms. The article concludes by acknowledging that while the recent agreement with China may ease tensions, it does not represent a fundamental shift in the relationship. India's partners, particularly the US, will remain cautious and monitor Beijing's actions closely. The article emphasizes the importance of ongoing communication and transparency between India and its partners to maintain a stable and balanced strategic environment in the face of China's evolving role in the region.
Source: China crisis has changed India so there’s no going back to 2020