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The recent détente in India-China relations, following a four-year border standoff, has caught the world by surprise. This unexpected shift in the relationship is not merely a resolution of border disputes but a strategic realignment driven by the changing global landscape. The article explores the factors behind this thaw, highlighting the interplay of geopolitical shifts, economic considerations, and a shared vision of a multipolar world.
The article argues that both India and China have recognized the limitations of their previous strategies. India's reliance on the US as a geopolitical instrument for countering China has yielded mixed results, while China has realized that focusing on its periphery has been less effective in the face of growing US influence in the Western Pacific. The emergence of a multipolar world, particularly after the Ukraine conflict, has further prompted both countries to reassess their positions. India's strategic autonomy and non-alignment have become obstacles to US-led efforts to counter a multipolar world order, while China's traditional geostrategy has faced challenges in a more complex global environment.
The article also emphasizes the role of geoeconomics in driving the détente. India's economic policy towards China, which involved limiting engagement and market access, predates the Ladakh standoff. The current easing of tensions presents an opportunity for both countries to develop a more nuanced approach to economic interdependence, leveraging China's manufacturing capabilities for India's developmental goals. This shift in economic policy is driven by a recognition that both India and China share a common interest in a reformed global financial and trade architecture.
Beyond the bilateral relationship, the article highlights the potential for India and China to collaborate on a global scale. As key players in the multipolar world, they have a shared interest in promoting inclusive globalization, reforming global institutions, and creating new public goods that benefit developing economies. This shared vision, alongside their shared challenges, provides a foundation for a more stable and constructive relationship between the two Asian giants.
However, the article acknowledges that fundamental challenges remain in the India-China relationship. The Himalayan frontier, power asymmetry, and regional competition for influence are enduring issues that cannot be easily resolved. While both countries embrace multipolarity, their interpretations of its implications for the subcontinent and surrounding regions may differ. Despite these challenges, the article concludes that India and China must develop a sophisticated policy framework that manages their differences while leveraging their common interests to shape the emerging multipolar world.
Source: Opinion: Himalayan thaw sends shockwaves across the world