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The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a forecast of isolated heavy rain for several southern states in India, including Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala, and Andhra Pradesh, over the weekend and into early next week. This forecast is driven by a developing depression in the Arabian Sea and a series of cyclonic circulations in the Bay of Bengal.
A low-pressure area off the coast of Maharashtra has intensified into a 'well-marked' low and is poised to become the first post-monsoon depression of the year. The IMD anticipates this depression to be declared as early as Sunday morning. Satellite imagery reveals a volatile trough extending from the center of this low towards the southeast Arabian Sea, indicating the potential for rain along the west coast of Kerala.
Meanwhile, on the opposite side of the peninsula, an upper air cyclonic circulation is positioned over the south Tamil Nadu coast. Simultaneously, another cyclonic circulation is situated over the central parts of the South Bay. These weather systems are expected to intensify early next week, coinciding with the passage of a Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) across the broader Indian Ocean.
The IMD has issued a warning for squally weather, with wind speeds ranging from 35-45 km/hr gusting to 55 km/hr, in areas including the Maldives, Lakshadweep, Comorin, and coastal regions of Kerala, Karnataka, Goa, Maharashtra, south Gujarat, the Gulf of Mannar, and the south Sri Lanka coast. Fishermen have been advised to avoid venturing into these waters over the next seven days.
Reports indicate heavy to very heavy rainfall in Konkan and Goa during the 24 hours ending Friday morning. Significant rainfall was also recorded in Gujarat, Madhya Maharashtra, Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam, Rayalaseema, South Interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Karaikal.
The IMD predicts isolated very heavy rainfall in Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal on Monday and Tuesday, and in Rayalaseema, Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam on Tuesday. Isolated heavy rain is anticipated in Kerala and Mahe throughout the week, and in Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Karaikal until Wednesday. Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam are expected to experience isolated heavy rain on Monday and Tuesday, while Rayalaseema is forecast to see heavy rain from Tuesday to Thursday. South Interior Karnataka is likely to receive isolated heavy rain on Saturday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.
In addition to the localized heavy rain, the IMD forecasts fairly widespread to widespread moderate rain in Andaman & Nicobar Islands and Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya over the next two days. This will transition to scattered light to moderate rain over these areas for the subsequent five days. Isolated to scattered light to moderate rain is anticipated for eastern India, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura throughout the week. Isolated heavy rain may affect Arunachal Pradesh on Saturday and Andaman & Nicobar Islands on Sunday.
Similar conditions are expected in Konkan & Goa and Gujarat over the next three days, with isolated to scattered light to moderate rain anticipated over the following four days. The remaining regions of India are expected to experience isolated to scattered light to moderate rain throughout the week. Isolated heavy rain is forecast for Madhya Maharashtra and the Gujarat Region on Saturday.
The southwest monsoon has withdrawn from the entirety of Uttar Pradesh, significant parts of Madhya Pradesh, and portions of Bihar, Jharkhand, and Chhattisgarh. The withdrawal line extends from Darbhanga (Bihar); Hazaribagh (Jharkhand); Pendra Road (Chhattisgarh); Narsinghpur and Khargaon (Madhya Pradesh); Nandurbar (Maharashtra); and Navsari (Gujarat). Favorable conditions suggest further withdrawal from remaining parts of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, and Bihar, as well as additional areas of Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, and parts of Odisha, West Bengal, and Sikkim over the next two days. The south peninsula is anticipating the arrival of the northeast monsoon.
Source: Isolated heavy rain forecast for Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh this weekend