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The upcoming assembly election results for Jammu and Kashmir and Haryana, scheduled for October 8, 2024, have generated considerable anticipation surrounding the release of exit polls. These polls, conducted after voting concludes, provide an initial glimpse into potential election outcomes, shaping expectations and influencing political narratives. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is vying for a third consecutive term in Haryana, while the Congress aims to reclaim power after a decade-long absence. The accuracy of these exit polls will be scrutinized closely, as they hold the potential to influence the political landscape in both states.
Historically, exit polls in both Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir have exhibited varying degrees of accuracy. In Haryana's 2014 assembly elections, the BJP secured a comfortable majority of 47 seats, and most exit polls correctly predicted their victory. However, the 2019 elections saw a decline in the BJP's seat count to 40, with many exit polls overestimating their performance. The BJP ultimately formed a government by forging an alliance with the Jannayak Janta Party (JJP) and securing the support of independent MLAs.
In Jammu and Kashmir, where assembly elections have been held after a nearly decade-long hiatus, exit polls have consistently offered a mixed bag of accuracy. The 2014 elections saw the People's Democratic Party (PDP) emerging as the largest party with 28 seats, while the BJP secured 25 seats, the National Conference (NC) garnered 15 seats, and the Congress finished with 12 seats. The 2008 elections, held in seven phases, saw exit polls predicting an NC dominance in the Valley, while the Congress was expected to lead in the Jammu region. The subsequent formation of a coalition between the NC and Congress resulted in Omar Abdullah becoming the state's youngest chief minister.
As the 2024 election results draw near, the exit polls will undoubtedly spark speculation and debate. However, their accuracy will only be definitively established once the official results are declared. The political landscape in both Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir is poised for change, and the upcoming election results, coupled with the analysis of exit poll data, will offer valuable insights into the evolving political dynamics in these regions.
Source: Haryana, J&K Exit Polls: How accurate have they been in the last two elections?