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The recent Haryana Assembly elections witnessed a significant shift in the political landscape, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) securing a third consecutive term in power. Despite this victory, the electoral landscape saw a substantial change, with 49 out of the 90 seats switching hands from the 2019 polls. This indicates a fluid political situation and reveals interesting trends in voter preferences.
The BJP, while retaining power, managed to win 22 seats that it had lost in 2019, demonstrating its ability to attract new voters. Conversely, the Congress also flipped 22 seats, reclaiming some it had lost, indicating its resilience in the face of the BJP's dominance. The remaining five flipped seats were split between the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) and independent candidates.
A closer look at the seat changes reveals a strategic shift. The Congress managed to win 10 of its 22 flipped seats from regional players and independent candidates who had won in 2019. This demonstrates the party's ability to consolidate opposition votes. Simultaneously, the BJP gained 14 seats from the Congress, indicating its strong hold on certain constituencies.
Despite losing all its seats, the Jannayak Janta Party (JJP), which had formed a post-poll alliance with the BJP in 2019, experienced a significant setback. The Congress won six of the JJP's seats, including Julana, where Olympian wrestler Vinesh Phogat contested her first election. The BJP, however, flipped the remaining four seats previously held by the JJP.
The INLD, which won two seats this time, lost the single seat it had won in 2019 – Ellenabad. The Congress won this seat by a margin of 15,000 votes. The INLD's alliance with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in an attempt to forge a Jat-Dalit combination proved unsuccessful, with the BSP failing to secure any seats. Mayawati attributed this failure to an “anti-Dalit” bias within the Jat community.
The Congress gained one seat – Sirsa – from the Haryana Lokhit Party (HLP), which had been backed by the BJP in 2019. The Congress's win in Sirsa is particularly notable considering it had finished fourth in the 2019 election. The BJP secured four of the seven seats won by Independents in 2019, further solidifying its position.
The election results also reveal significant regional trends. The BJP has solidified its hold in the Grand Trunk Road belt, the Yadav belt, southern Haryana, and the National Capital Region (NCR), particularly in constituencies bordering Uttar Pradesh and Delhi. The Congress, however, managed to strengthen its presence in seats bordering Punjab.
In central Haryana and other Jat-dominated regions, both the BJP and Congress secured seats. The BJP won six seats in the Jat belt, demonstrating its ability to appeal to a broader range of voters. The BJP also expanded its presence in the GT Road Belt, a region that was already a stronghold. The Congress, however, gained five seats in this region, showcasing its ability to compete in key areas.
Source: 49 Haryana seats changed hands from last time, BJP retains a much larger chunk than Congress