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The upcoming Haryana assembly elections on October 5th showcase a stark, yet strangely similar, electoral strategy employed by the Congress Party and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The Congress, known for its reliance on Jat support, has allocated the majority of its tickets to candidates from this community. Conversely, the BJP has chosen to prioritize candidates from the general category – Brahmins, Baniyas, Punjabis/Khatris, and Rajputs. While the Congress has opted to retain most of its MLAs from the 2019 election, the BJP has surprisingly denied tickets to roughly 40% of its previous candidates. Despite these contrasting approaches to candidate selection, both parties have surprisingly adopted strikingly similar campaign platforms, filled with promises of financial support for women, discounted LPG cylinders, and government job opportunities. This strategic convergence emphasizes the overriding importance of appealing to crucial voter segments, even if the methods differ.
Caste, a deeply ingrained element of Haryana's political landscape, plays a pivotal role in determining electoral outcomes. The Congress, aiming for consolidation, is focusing on garnering support from Jats, Dalits, and minorities, groups that collectively represent approximately 50% of the state's population. The BJP, on the other hand, is targeting its traditional voter base, comprising other backward classes and the general category, which also constitutes around 50% of the electorate. The Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) and the Jannayak Janta Party (JJP), two other significant political players, are actively seeking to attract a portion of Jat voters and detach Dalit voters from the Congress, who heavily backed the party during the 2024 general elections. The INLD is attempting this by forging an alliance with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), while the JJP is seeking to achieve the same goal through an alliance with the Azad Samaj Party.
Analyzing seat-specific demographics reveals the strategic importance of certain communities in specific regions. In 57 constituencies, the Jat population surpasses 10%, with Rohtak (20 seats), Hisar (18 seats), and Karnal (8 seats) being particularly notable. These seats witnessed a relatively even distribution of victories in 2019, with the Congress securing 20 seats, the BJP winning 19, and others claiming 18. Similarly, 49 constituencies exhibit a Jatav (Scheduled Caste) population exceeding 10%, with a significant concentration in Hisar (11 seats), Ambala and Rohtak (9 seats each), and Gurugram (8 seats). In 2019, the BJP emerged victorious in 21 of these seats, while the Congress captured 15, and others secured 13. The Brahmin community is prominent in 25 constituencies, with Rohtak (8 seats), Ambala (6 seats), and Karnal and Faridabad (4 seats each) displaying notable concentrations. The BJP demonstrated a clear dominance in these seats during the 2019 election, winning 13. The Congress secured 8 seats, and others claimed 4. Furthermore, there are 17 constituencies with a Punjabi/Khatri/Arora population exceeding 10%, distributed across Ambala and Hisar (4 seats each), and Rohtak and Faridabad (3 seats each). In 2019, the BJP achieved a sweeping victory in these seats, capturing 13, leaving the Congress with just 1 and others with 3. The Ahir community is prominent in 10 constituencies, with 9 located in the Gurugram division. The BJP swept these seats in 2019, winning all 9 while the Congress won only 1. Finally, 10 constituencies have a Gujjar population exceeding 10%, with 5 located in the Faridabad division. The BJP emerged victorious in 6 of these seats in 2019, while the Congress secured 3 and others 1.
The BJP’s success in 2019 can be attributed to its dominance in general category (Brahmin/Khatri) and OBC-influenced (Gujjar/Ahir) seats. Conversely, the Congress failed to establish a clear lead in Jat-influenced seats, ultimately contributing to their loss. This strategic breakdown reveals a crucial insight: in 58 out of the 90 seats, the combined population of Brahmins, Rajputs, Sainis, Gujjars, Ahirs, and Punjabis/Khatris – forming the bedrock of BJP support – exceeds the combined population of Jats and Muslims, traditionally the core support base of the Congress. In these seats, Dalit voters emerge as kingmakers. In 2014, the BJP secured 40 out of its total 47 seats in these crucial constituencies. This success was replicated in 2019, where the BJP won 31 out of its total 40 seats in these same regions. The Congress, on the other hand, won 19 of these seats in 2019 out of its total 31, and led in 20 segments during the 2024 general elections. In a contrasting scenario, the Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) led in 26 out of 32 seats where the Jat-Muslim population outweighed the combined population of Brahmins, Rajputs, Sainis, Gujjars, Ahirs, and Punjabis/Khatris.
Examining the composition of the legislative assembly in 2019 provides a nuanced understanding of the political landscape. Jats, the largest and most influential group, secured 25 seats, constituting 28% of the assembly's strength, mirroring their demographic representation. Seventeen Dalit MLAs and nine Muslim/Sikh MLAs were elected, representing 19% and 10% of the assembly's strength, respectively, reflecting their population proportions of 20% and 12%, respectively. The Congress boasted the highest number of Jat MLAs with 9, followed by the BJP and JJP, each with 5. The general category accounted for 24 MLAs, representing 27% of the assembly's strength, exceeding their population share. OBCs were represented by 15 MLAs, constituting 17% of the assembly's strength, falling short of their demographic representation. The data reveals a significant trend: over half of the MLAs were either Jats or belonged to the general category. The BJP held the highest number of Brahmin, Baniya, and Punjabi/Khatri MLAs in 2019 (18) as well as OBC MLAs (9).
The Congress and its ally, the Communist Party of India-Marxist (holding one seat), have nominated 29 Jat candidates, while the BJP has selected only 15. Conversely, the BJP has given tickets to 35 general category candidates, in stark contrast to the Congress's 15. In terms of OBC and Scheduled Caste candidates, both parties have allocated an almost equal number of tickets. While the Congress has fielded five Muslim candidates and four Jat Sikh candidates, the BJP has chosen only two Muslim candidates and one Jat Sikh candidate. Among the general category, the BJP has given 11 tickets each to Brahmins and Punjabi Khatris. Analyzing the proportion of candidates reveals that the BJP has allocated 39% of its tickets to general category candidates, while the Congress has dedicated 32% of its tickets to Jats. Both parties have allocated 19% of their tickets to SCs and 21-22% of their tickets to OBCs, indicating a clear focus on their core voter segments.
During the 2024 general elections, 68% of SCs and 51% of OBCs voted in favor of the INDIA bloc. These two communities have the potential to emerge as kingmakers in the upcoming state elections. The BJP is banking on a split in Dalit votes between the Congress, the BSP, and the ASP, hoping to regain OBC votes that were lost in 2024. The BJP is also strategically positioning Nayab Singh Saini as the CM face, attempting to neutralize the caste census pitch of the Congress. In 14 seats, both parties have fielded Jat candidates. There are general-vs-general category candidate contests and OBC-vs-OBC contests in 13 seats each. Seventeen seats are reserved for SC candidates. There are Jat-vs-general category contests in 12 seats, Jat-vs-OBC contests in 4, and general-vs-OBC contests in 8 seats. There will be Muslim-vs-Muslim contests in only 2 seats, a Sikh-vs-Sikh contest in just 1 seat, a Muslim-vs-OBC contest in 1 seat, Muslim-vs general category contests in 2 seats, and Sikh-vs-general category contests in 3 seats.
Past trends suggest that a general category/OBC MLA has a higher probability of being elected on a BJP ticket, while Jat and Dalit MLAs have a greater chance of winning on a Congress ticket. To secure victory, the Congress needs to limit the influence of the JJP, the INLD, and other parties in Jat-influenced seats and SC-reserved seats. While the Congress has nominated 29 of its 31 MLAs from the 2019 election, the BJP has denied tickets to 15 of its 40 MLAs. This stark contrast highlights the contrasting strategies of the two parties. The Congress is banking on continuity, while the BJP is aiming for a new CM and fresh faces to counter the anti-incumbency sentiment. Both parties have released remarkably similar manifestos, focusing on addressing key concerns like unemployment (government jobs), inflation (subsidized LPG cylinders and cash income support for women), and agricultural distress (MSP).
The upcoming election promises a compelling contest, with Jats eager to regain their political prominence and potentially seek retribution against the BJP. In response, the BJP is aiming to consolidate the general category and OBCs, raising anxieties about a potential return of Jat dominance. The dynamics of this election are intricately linked to caste considerations, with each party strategizing to secure the support of key communities. The outcome will hinge on the effectiveness of these strategies, and the ability of each party to appeal to voters' concerns and aspirations.
Source: Opinion: Congress bets on Jats and continuity, BJP on general category, new faces in Haryana