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The recent death of Yahya Sinwar, leader of the Palestinian militant group Hamas, has thrown the organization into a critical juncture. Sinwar's death marks the second major loss for Hamas within three months, following the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in July. As Hamas grapples with this leadership vacuum, the process of selecting a successor is unfolding against a backdrop of complex geopolitical considerations and internal power dynamics.
The selection of a new leader is not a simple matter of replacing one individual with another. The chosen successor must navigate the delicate balance of interests between Hamas's main backer, Iran, and the influence of Qatar, where several key contenders reside. Experts anticipate that Hamas will choose a new political leader based outside Gaza, while his brother, Mohammad Sinwar, is poised to take on a more prominent role in directing the ongoing conflict against Israel.
Three primary candidates have emerged as potential successors: Khalil Al-Hayya, Sinwar's deputy and Hamas's chief negotiator, is known for his strong opposition to Israel and his close ties to Iran. Khaled Meshaal, a former Hamas leader, is seen as a relatively moderate figure, although his past disagreements with Tehran may hinder his chances. Mohammad Darwish, the chairman of the Shura Council, represents a lesser-known but still significant contender. The Shura Council, Hamas's top decision-making body, will ultimately select the new leader, taking into account the needs and perspectives of Hamas members across Gaza, the West Bank, Israeli prisons, and the Palestinian diaspora.
Despite the loss of its leader, Hamas is expected to maintain its core demands in future ceasefire talks, including the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and an end to the hostilities. However, there may be some flexibility in areas such as prisoner exchanges. The group's ability to emerge from the recent conflict, which has resulted in thousands of casualties and the elimination of key figures, remains uncertain. The ongoing war and communication challenges could hinder the effectiveness of the new leader, potentially leaving the Qassam Brigades, Hamas's military wing, with a greater degree of control over operations.
Source: Who will succeed Yahya Sinwar as Hamas chief? 3 candidates in fray