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The upcoming Assembly elections in Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir have sparked intense interest, with the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) aiming for a third consecutive term in Haryana and a highly anticipated contest between national and regional parties in J&K. As voting concludes, attention turns towards exit polls, which provide preliminary insights into potential election outcomes. However, the accuracy of these polls has been a subject of debate, particularly in light of past elections.
In the 2014 Haryana Assembly elections, exit polls accurately predicted the BJP's victory, although they slightly underestimated its margin of victory. Four exit polls projected the BJP to win around 43 seats, falling just short of the majority mark, while the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) was expected to come second with 27 seats and Congress with 13. The actual results showed the BJP securing 47 seats, Congress winning 15, and INLD securing only 19 seats, eight fewer than predicted. In 2019, however, exit polls significantly misjudged the outcome, anticipating a BJP landslide. Eight exit polls estimated the BJP to win around 61 seats, with Congress lagging behind at 18. However, the results revealed a hung Assembly, with BJP securing only 40 seats and Congress surprisingly winning 31.
The 2014 Assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir, after a decade, also saw exit polls providing mixed predictions. While the polls correctly indicated a hung Assembly, they overestimated the PDP's performance, projecting 32-38 seats, while the BJP was expected to win 27-33 seats. The actual results showed PDP winning 28 seats, BJP 25, National Conference 15, and Congress 12. The six-year term of the PDP-BJP government ended prematurely, leading to President's rule in the region. These past instances highlight the fluctuating accuracy of exit polls, underscoring the inherent complexities of predicting election outcomes.
The accuracy of exit polls is influenced by various factors, including sample size, methodology, and the political climate leading up to the elections. The ever-evolving political landscape, changing voter sentiments, and the emergence of new political forces can also impact the reliability of these predictions. As such, while exit polls provide a glimpse into potential trends, they should be interpreted with caution and considered alongside other factors influencing the electoral process.
Source: Haryana, J&K Exit Polls: How Accurate Were Pollsters' Prediction In Past Elections?